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Archive for January, 2009

Supply Chain Unrest

Wednesday, January 28th, 2009

Industrial supply chains have grown in complexity and international in scope over the past decade. The reason behind this increased complexity is simple, to reduce costs. In my book without warning, one of the warning signs that a silent problem might be present is, “When there is a willingness to embrace complexity, while simultaneously sacrificing transparency. Symptom: The business becomes too convoluted and complex to understand. Nothing makes sense anymore.

Today, the world is on the verge of a massive contraction, one we haven’t felt or experienced in many decades. However in some respects, this one will likely be more profound, because it will break supply chains without warning. For instance, reports now surfacing out of China reveal that 1000s of factories are being shuttered, literally overnight and without warning. As these events unfold, once functional supply chains will break, adding to the financial stress already present in the world marketplace. Rebuilding these supply chains will be costly and time consuming.

Whether discussing textiles or technology, I anticipate that supply chain breaks will be the next big and costly without warning event to occur. And supply chains focused on low cost metrics may be the most vulnerable to disruption.

Now is the time to reevaluate your supply chains, with a renewed focus on simplicity, transparency and suppliers you can trust.

The Visibility Challenge

Wednesday, January 28th, 2009

It takes a lot of ingredients to make a business run smoothly and efficiently. Unfortunately, few businesses can make this claim today. Credit is tight to non-existent. Clients are focusing on survival at almost any cost. Relationships are strained, with no improvement in sight. Each of these leads to a general lack of visibility, the secret sauce to running a profitable business.

Now everyone is running scared. Orders are slashed and released to their venders at the last second. Oftentimes with unrealistic expectations and demands attached to them. Bankers are cutting lines of credit, oftentimes without notice. This is quickly evolving into a world where previous rules no longer apply, and new standards are being put into place. Often with little or no consideration to those it impacts. Every action and reaction across the supply chain is further reducing Visibility.

My concern, this is another one of those Without Warning scenarios. Short-term thinkers are making long-term plays. During more normal times when similar situations emerged, many companies could simply fire their customer, client or supplier. However today, businesses are fighting to retain whatever business they can, and firing a customer isn’t plausible. This allows an imbalance in the system to emerge and sustain itself.

The quickest means of exiting this recession is if everyone were to restrain from extreme acts and a healthy dose of civility emerged. Helping improve Visibility in the supply chain will help all. If we don’t, an old Swahili saying might apply, “When elephants fight, it’s the grass that suffers.”

Be the one to see it coming!

The first leadership book to point out the problem, then hand-deliver the solution.

Without Warning - Rondey Johnson

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