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Archive for March, 2009

Do They Believe Money Is Silent?

Tuesday, March 17th, 2009

At times I read the news and wonder “What the hell were they thinking?”  Last fall, a similar story to the recently announced AIG bonus story surfaced, except then it was Lehman Brothers.  The story titled, No Spas, No riches, No Reward for Failed Execs, by Ann Woolner surfaced.  It stated:

But an exchange of e-mail disclosed by the House oversight committee shows an astoundingly arrogant attitude at Lehman’s highest levels toward executive pay.

Forgo Bonuses?

As recently as June, Fuld and Lehman’s head of global investment management, George H. Walker IV, scoffed when a couple of in-house fund managers suggested that top executives forgo their 2008 bonuses.

That would not only “represent a significant expense reduction,” urged Judith Vale and Robert D’Alelio in an e-mail. “It would send a strong message to both employees and investors that management is not shirking accountability for recent performance.”

They said they “feel compelled to express our views” to the members of the board’s executive committee.

This didn’t sit well with Walker. He e-mailed the other top Lehman managers who had received the message and apologized for the ridiculous suggestion.

“I’m not sure what’s in the water” where Vale and D’Alelio work, Walker wrote. The notion of giving up bonuses was “hardly worth the Executive Commitee’s time now”

“…Don’t worry,” Fuld e-mailed him. Those complaining “are only people who think about their own pockets.”

While I’m appalled, I’m definitely not shocked that AIG has taken this action on their bonus program.  After all, shortly after AIG received their first bailout, they planned on taking employees and agents to some exclusive resorts for a little $$$R&R.  They were surprised that the American taxpayer was so upset with them.  Now this comes along, and nothing has changed.  From my seat, AIG has a huge leadership problem and Yes, at AIG the Emperor Wears No Clothes.

Mr. Madoff, you’re no Warren Buffet

Saturday, March 14th, 2009

Oftentimes, the best way to understand and appreciate a system is to expose the extremes.  When it comes to the financial community, Madoff and Buffet are on the opposite ends of the spectrum.  Although their ages and prominence up to six months ago were similar, in reality they were opposites.  For instance:

  • Madoff lived in a NYC penthouse, living the lifestyle of a billionaire.  Buffet lives in a small house in a quiet Omaha neighborhood.  He is a billionaire living the lifestyle of the middle class.
  • Madoff’s non-existent trading strategy was constructed around secrecy and lack of transparency.  Buffet’s strategy is based on value investing, where everything is transparent.
  • Madoff preyed on his victims by being highly exclusive.  Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway was open to the public if you could afford the admittance price of $100,000+ per share.
  • Madoff spent, spent and spent money to support his lifestyle.  Buffet plans to donate most of his wealth to charity, through the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

The constrasts between these two financial icons are Black and White.  And yes, Bernard Madoff was a Black Swan, and Warren Buffet the night in shining armor.  Be careful, who you trust your hard earned money with…

The Silent Phenomenon

Thursday, March 12th, 2009

Today my book, Without Warning: Breakthrough strategies for solving the silent problems taking aim at your organization is finally on the market.  My journey started three years ago while on a walk, when a client handed me an idea, an idea I couldn’t shake.  You know, kind of like a song that plays over and over again in your head. Over the next three years, that gift became a challenge everyday . At times I’d wrestle with it, at other times words flowed as if it were magic.  Today that gift officially became an opportunity.  An opportunity to challenge the status quo in the problem solving arena.  As I’ve discussed the idea with clients, friends and acquantances, the concept of silent problems is new but old.  Up until now, they intuitively knew they existed, yet didn’t quite know how to talk about them or solve them.  Today, they have access to new language and tools to solve the silent problems in their organizations, and their lives.  Times are exciting.

I encourage you take a look at the free chapter, it will hopefully wet your appetite for what follows.  Yes these are exciting times.  Now is not the time to run away from the silent problems facing you.  Identify and address them proactively, otherwise they will sting.

Supply Chains Exposed

Wednesday, March 11th, 2009

Recently I wrote about how supply chains were potentially a Silent Problem on the horizon for more and more businesses (Supply Chain Unrest).  Today, I read with interest a story from Bloomberg titled China’s Investment Surges 26.5% as Exports Plunge.  Near the end of the article it states, “Plunging exports and imports forced 20,000 small- and medium- sized companies in China’s Guangdong province to close since October, shedding 2 million jobs, the Nanfang Daily newspaper reported last month. Those feeling the squeeze include suppliers to companies such as Mattel Inc., the world’s biggest toymaker, and U.S. department- store chain J.C. Penney Co. U.S. consumer confidence has tumbled as a recession deepens in the world’s biggest economy.”

Supply chains can be robust and fragile at the same time.  In a growing worldwide economy, new factories are built, jobs are created and infrastructure to sustain it is built.  In a declining economy, factories are shuttered, employees are eliminated and infrastructure becomes hobbled. 

Creating a world-class supply chain can be challenging to build and costly to maintain.  The more complicated the end product, the difficulty to maintain it grows exponentially.  And visibility into the supply chain becomes inherently more difficult.  Today many supply chains are a Without Warning Event ready to happen.  Unfortunately, this may the next component that could push many businesses out of business.

On a positive note, every challenge can be another person’s opportunity.  Here I expect companies will be forced to reevaluate their supply chain risks.  And in the end, some will decide to move production back to their home base.  It may not be the lowest cost solution, however, increased costs will be overshadowed by reduced risk.  Welcome to the World of Business.

The GE Leadership Source

Tuesday, March 10th, 2009

Over the past decade, GE has been a source of World Class leaders for numerous companies.  For instance, Jeff Immelt, James McNerney and Robert Nardelli were each hoping to receive the nod from Jack Welch upon his retirement.  Jeff Immelt was selected.  Although in the past year, GE’s stock price has experienced a 75+% decline. James McNerny became the CEO of 3M and now heads up Boeing.  Boeing’s stock price has declined upwards of 65% in the past 12 months.  And Robert Nardelli moved over to Home Depot where his tenure was suspect and now heads up Chrysler, which is flirting with bankruptcy.

Here is the question.  In the future, will the perceived value of leaders emerging out of GE be tarnished?

From my perspective, most emerging leaders have cut their teeth in three arenas in recent years. International trade, aka the World is Flat model.  Secondly, high finance.  And third, growth through Merger and Acquisitions.  Suddenly, the World looks significantly different than it did a year ago.  What was in vogue, is quickly going out of favor.  For many companies, it will be getting back to basics.

Is the GE leadership model out of vogue?  If yes, what type of leader will be in demand over the next 3-5 years?

This is a fine mess…

Sunday, March 8th, 2009

The comedic duo of Stan Laurel (the skinny one) and Oliver Hardy were a popular comedy team back in the days when Black and White was still popular.  And one of their most memorable lines was, “This is a fine mess you got us into.”   Well I was thinking about this line and the similar statures between that of Rush Limbaugh (Oliver Hardy), the overly pompous Republican soothsayer and that of President Barack Obama (Stan Laurel), the straight guy.   

Well, in recent weeks, Limbaugh has challenged the President to a debate on his talk show.  And the only conclusion I see coming out of this would be these final words from Limbaugh, “Well, Mr. President, this is a fine mess you got us into.”  Unfortunately, President Obama is giving Limbaugh more than enough material to make this phrase apply, at least at the moment.  And unless something reverses course, “a fine mess” could denote the first year of his presidency.  So far, the stimulus isn’t stimulating.  And his economic plan isn’t being very economic. 

Well, in Without Warning fashion, I expect Saturday Night Live to quickly create an ongoing skit with Limbaugh and Obama in the oval office.  And the designation, “Well Mr. President, this is a fine mess you’ve gotten us into” will come to life.

A Leadership Challenge

Saturday, March 7th, 2009

As the economy slows, how do you know you’re making the right decisions?  What are the right actions?  Where do you cut?  What and whom is expendable?  Truth is, leading in a down economy is difficult, with more traps and distractions that could put any seasoned veteran leader down for the count. 

Why is this?

Truth is, we’re programmed and educated in the processes of “how to grow” a business.  Incentive plans, strategic plans, product development are all generally based on growth.  Not contraction. Which leads us to my first point.  Leading in a downturn is psychologically challenging, and you must accept the challenge with open arms.  Most leaders simply will be unable to say, “I’m not participating in this recession.”  The depth of the recession is simply to broad and too deep to avoid.  The second challenge should be taken for granted.  You will need to make numerous unpopular decisions.  Accept the fact you will not be Mr. Popularity for some time to come.  Third, don’t forget to do the things that made your business successful in the first place.  Actions related to customer service, quality, a pleasant work environment and keeping the remaining workforce motivated and appreciated is paramount to your success. 

The natural inclination for business leaders to pursue at this juncture is to make something BIG happen.  However, Without Warning events tend to emerge from messing up on the little things.  At this point, taking care of the little things is more important than ever.  Now go do it.

If Cheap Becomes Chic

Thursday, March 5th, 2009

This recession is different.  In recessions past, products and services positioned for the weathly were generally considered “recession proof”.  However this time around, the wealthy are also suffering.  Today, such industry stalwarts from Rolls Royce to Tiffany are experiencing a significant downtick in demand.   Yes, this is a Without Warning Event of significant magnitude.

What’s underway?

Obviously, significant quantities of wealth were wiped out by schemes like Madoff and Stanford.  Next, the financial sector, home to some of the best paid jobs in the world, has been hit hard, with well over 200,000 jobs lost.  Third and maybe most important, stocks have lost over 50% of their value, most of that within the last 6-months.  When you add these with other factors like housing into the equation,  it’s not surprising that the wealthy are also feeling the pain.

What does this mean in the bigger picture?

The question I’m asking today is whether this is a short term event, or a long term trend.  Is this a crucible moment, similar to the Great Depression, where consumers lose their appetite for the luxurious and retain their newfound mantra for the frugal?  Or is this a brief downtrend, a place where individuals will simply resume where the left off once the financial crisis subsides and economies regain their footing. 

Your thoughts…

A Looming Biofuels Bust

Wednesday, March 4th, 2009

On February 23rd, I wrote in this column, titled A Few Good Men, about former military general Wesley Clark and how he was named co-chairman of Growth Energy, a new biofuels group/association.  I stated they have four  primary objectives, which Clark would be directly focused on delivering against.  They were:

  1. Help move the blending cap from the current 10%, to 15-20%
  2. Increase the perceived importance of ethanol as a part of national and energy security
  3. Maintain the current subsidy program in place, which is due for renewal
  4. Position the industry as one that should not be allowed to fail

Today, I believe the importance of delivering on point #1 is quickly diminishing and the importance of numbers 2,3 and 4 are increasing.  If you were to follow the biofuels marketplace, you’d realize that biofuel plants are shutting down at an alarming rate.  The reason being, they simply aren’t profitable in today’s marketplace.  Crude oil is too low and their feedstock (mostly corn or soybeans) too high.  With many of these facilities either shutting their doors or considering this alternative, a shortage of ethanol could quickly emerge.  In turn, remaining production sites would be unable to meet the ethanol inclusion mandates in place.  The shortfall would be met by lowering the standard (by offering exceptions) or start importing ethanol (most likely source, Brazil). 

So as I iterated in my initial post, Growth Energy will be marching up to Capitol Hill, demanding their fair share of stimulus dollars. This industry is no longer focused on growth, but rather survival. At least that’s the way I see it.

How BIG is a Trillion

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009

Millions, Billions & Trillions.  How BIG are they.  I had the good fortune of listening to Alan Beaulieu of Trend Research today.  It  was a presentation about the state of the economy.  Pretty scary stuff.  Maybe more on thiatlater.  But here is an interesting piece of trivia that everyone should be able to answer.

How BIG is a Trillion?

Well, if you were to do the math, it’s mind-numbing.  If I were to give you a $1 Million every day, it would take 2,809 years for you to collect your trillion dollars.  So when you hear about the stimulus plan that is possibly $1 trillion on the low side and maybe as high as $2 trillion on the top side, you can begin to fathom what a big number that is.  And more importantly, “Is spending a trillion dollars on stimulus efforts wise?”

Unfortunately, our leaders in Washington are tossing around a trillion dollar economic stimulus as if its no big deal - when in reality it is a really BIG DEAL.

Be the one to see it coming!

The first leadership book to point out the problem, then hand-deliver the solution.

Without Warning - Rondey Johnson

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