Over a year ago I read an article noting that Toyota coveted the #2 position behind GM. The article was from Business Week, titled Why Toyota is Afraid of Being Number One.
Well, GM is no longer #1 in worldwide auto sales. Toyota has assumed that spot. At the same time, Toyota moved up to the #2 spot in domestic sales, beating out Ford. Today however, it was reported that Ford had reclaimed the #2 spot in domestic sales from Toyota.
Several points are worth mentioning here. Throughout this downturn, Ford has been the company to follow. They’ve been the car company that has generated fresh momentum and are positioned to garner market share from GM,Toyota and Chysler. Ford is the car company to watch over the next year. They’re back!!!
Two, from my perspective, Toyota has become lazy. They were in the drivers seat and they expected customers to come to them and place orders. At the same time, quality standards were declining and their line-up of cars started to get stale (sounds familiar to what happened at GM & Chrysler). They simply haven’t been aggressive because they didn’t have to. And now its beginning to show and have an impact.
Last, Toyota bacame an iconic brand because of the Prius. As oil prices rallied towards $150/barrl, demand was immense. At $50/barrel, demand slid. Numbers for April show that sales for Toyota were off 42%, while Prius sales slid 62%.
Toyota appears to have lost its momentum. And as the economy turns around and car sales begin to rebound, I predict that Toyota will be a lagard. Fresh companies like Ford, Hyundai and others will be on the attack, going after #1. And if Toyota falls as I anticipate, reports about Toyota will also turn for the worse. Stories will reveal about how key decisions weren’t made. How faulty assumptions were made. How political infighting is underway. These are the basic foundations of Silent Problems and Without Warning Events.
Beware Toyota, you’re being hunted while you’re looking in the rearview mirror. And news of the silent problems yuo’ve been avoiding will quickly surface.
