For a second, I’d like you to paint a picture in your head where twelve 13 year old boys wearing baseball uniforms are posing for a picture. Each player is adorned with a medal draping their necks and each has a huge smile on their face. From the mental image, it’s obvious that this team has won a tournament. Now, overlay a second picture onto the first. The new image is the picture of a coach wearing the team colors, except he is approximately 6-feet to the right of the team. However, rather than smiling, the coach has his head draped down, and hands crossed.
What would this picture tell you, if anything?
And now for the rest of the story.
Last weekend I was the director for a 13AA traveling baseball league tournament held in the upper midwest. On Sunday morning, a controversial play occurred. The catcher noticed the runner on third base had a strong lead, so the catcher fired the ball down to the third baseman, attempting to throw the runner out. The umpire called the runner safe. The coach whose team was in the field was standing in the dugout and yelled to the umpire, “He was out.”
The umpire reiterated, “I called him safe,” as he walked toward the coach.
“But he was out” the coach empahitically shouted one more time.
“I called him out.”
And then the final plea entered the field when the coach said, “But he was out,” with his hands waving in the air.
At that moment, the umpire tossed the coach out of the game. Within seconds the coach left the dugout, totally surprised that he had been ejected from the game.
Now some three hours later, the games are finished and trophies and medals awarded, I caught the most unusual picture. I was leaving the sports complex when I saw the team and coach taking the picture I asked you to create. It was very telling. It was a picture of triumph and disgrace. The team was triumphant. The coach was sad that he let his emotions get the better of him, eventually being tossed from the game. What kind of example did this show the kids? His portrait with his team was picture-perfect.
Why is this story relevant to my book Without Warning?
In the book, I refer to “Without Warning” events as being similar to that of the coach being ejected from the team. When he was challenging the umpire, I’m certain he thought he was on solid ground and became emotionally tied to a different outcome. But I can also tell you that very rarely will an umpire reverse a call they’ve made. It simply doesn’t work that way. So while the umpire provided adequate warning, the coach’s behavior didn’t change.
Inside most “Without Warning Events,” warnings are present, yet remain unheeded. And when the final warning call presents itself, the outcome is significantly more dramatic and impactful than the original event itself. This was true for the 2008 financial crisis, Enron, Madoff and numerous other crisis in recent years.
Final Analysis: Pay special attention to the warning signs that could lead up to a Without Warning Event.
