Rodney Johnson - Without Warning

In the late 1990s, the dot-com era was underway, marking a period of rapid innovation and at times, constant hysteria.  Everyday was a race to somewhere and nowhere.  Vast fortunes were created on paper overnight, yet billions were lost once the marketplace woke up.  Smart talking analysts and cash rich investors lined up professing, “The Internet changes everything.”  Soothsayers lined up professing its foolishness, due to absurd business plans and unrealistic growth models.  For most, nothing made sense until its demise, and then everything became perfectly clear.  And during the confusion, billions were invested and lost.  It was a bubble of enormous magnitude.

Today, thousands of people have lost money to ponzi schemes to names like Maddoff and Stanford attached to them.  The United States government has inserted billions into ailing financial institutions like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Bank of America, etc., hoping to avert a total financial meltdown.  Car manufacturers such as GM and Chrysler are struggling to stay alive.  Companies around the world are flailing and failing.  Once again, confusion and at times hysteria, has invaded the marketplace.

Is leadership to blame for this upside down world?

As I revisit the historical accounts of the past decade, I sometimes wonder about the tipping points in the evolution of without warning events such as the dot com era and financial collapse of 2008.  At times, I ponder what type of satirical theme Scott Adams, the creator of the cartoon strip Dilbert would weave to illustrate the current mania?   And what would Gary Larson, the author of The Far Side say?  Would he paint a similar depiction illustrating dinosaurs smoking cigarettes in a meadow with the caption, “The real reason dinosaurs went extinct” be fitting?

The underlying reason behind these and other failures is simple.  Too often people overlook or miss the warning signs coming their way.  For instance in the financial meltdown, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini sounded warning signals about the toxic nature of the sub-prime market.  However his warnings and others went generally unheeded and unnoticed. In the end, not heeding these warnings magnified the problem and the resultant impact on the global economy.

In my book, Without Warning, I describe such underlying problems like what occurred with the sub-prime market, the dot com collapse and recent ponzi schemes as silent problems. A silent problem is a problem that is being avoided, neglected, or going unnoticed, or a problem that is being intentionally silenced. Unfortunately, these problems tend to be some of the most challenging and potentially dangerous problems an organization could face. 

If silent problems are so dangerous, why are they so often avoided, go unnoticed and not solved?

Three primary reasons exist.  First, problems can become silent when they grow slowly, then over time they become accepted by the organization or the industry as normal, only to explode later. Second, oftentimes problems are neglected for numerous reasons, or they simply go unnoticed.  When this occurs, problems are allowed to exist with no direction or oversight, which can lead to larger problems over time. Third, silent problems often go unsolved because of their dangerous characteristics. For instance, silent problems often

• are undisciplined, unruly, disobedient, disruptive and resistant to change
• contain their own set of rules, regulations, and norms
• contain elements of ego, bullying, tradition and cultural norms,
• grow in size, morph in scope, and become virulent over time.

When I look at the historical context of the dot-com era and the recent financial crisis, each of these descriptors rings true.  For example, the financial crisis origins were small and insignificant in the early stages of the problem.  Then over several years, home ownership grew into an economic growth engine no one wanted to derail, much less address.  Therefore, it was easy to neglect.  And towards the end, the subprime market became the primary profit center for many financial institutions. Each became an integral component of the problem. Yes, silent problems were present and a major factor. 

 Why Silent Problems are Difficult to Solve

A core competency of every organization is to be strong problem solvers.  The problem solver theme runs across the organization from front line employees like sales personnel and customer service, up through the executive ranks.  It’s why organizations are in business and it can be a distinguishing characteristic in the marketplace.  Most organizations hire and promote based on an individual’s experience, productivity and leadership/management skills.  However the truth is, people are promoted based on their ability to solve problems.

But what happens when a problem is silent?  Is it really a problem?

This is the first challenge that must be addressed head on. If a problem is silent, it doesn’t exist, at least in the collective mindset of the organization.  And if it doesn’t exist, there is nothing to solve. Therefore, the first objective is to make the problem exist, which means making the problem visible for everyone to see.  To achieve this goal, the next step is counter-intuitive.  You must create a problem. 

You might say, “This makes absolutely no sense.  After all, you just said that an individual’s perceived value is as a problem solver, not a problem creator.”  If you reached this conclusion, you’re absolutely right.  However when a problem is silent, there’s nothing to solve.  Therefore, you must give the silent problem a fresh perspective, a renewed emphasis, and an innovative position.  To achieve this, you have to create a problem.

Peter Senge, founder of the Center for Organizational Learning at MIT’s Sloan School of Business and author of The Fifth Discipline begins to connect the dots why problem creation is an important step in solving a silent problem.  Senge writes:

 In creating, we seek to make what we truly care about exist.

 When we create a problem, we proclaim it’s really important. Once a problem is made visible, a second phase kicks in, problem solving.  Senge this time writes:

 In problem solving, we seek to make something we do not like go away

 When a problem is visible, suddenly people notice that a problem exists.  And what’s their reaction.  “Oh we have a problem.  We better fix it.”  By creating a problem for a previous silent problem, we enable problem solving to occur. We give it permission to exist and be solved. 

The idea of creating a problem to solve a problem is a new leadership concept to many. Yet as I’ve studied the historical patterns of how leaders solve problems, its been commonly deployed. It’s a tool that can work in large organizations and small.  It’s a concept that can be deployed across an organization with superb results.  It’s a leadership tool that is needed to solve many of the problems our world is facing.

Summary

Leaders have the opportunity to define what’s important. They help shape an organization’s values and mission statement. They promote individuals with the right stuff into positions with greater responsibilities and expectations. They also help their organizations define what types of problems are important, by deciding which problems will be solved. Choose carefully.