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Archive for the ‘Risk’ Category

The Game Changer - Inflation

Tuesday, April 26th, 2011

Management practices must coincide with the times. In an era of static or eroding prices, waiting to buy at the last minute makes a lot of sense. If you make or sell something, numerous benefits are achieved. Inventory turns increase. Carrying costs decrease. Replacement costs decline. Profits improve. It all makes perfect sense, and its the optimal way to play the game. However, what happens when inflation begins to take hold. Is this a game changer?

From my perspective, inflation at the very least gets your attention, and in many instances, it changes the way you play the game.

Let’s face it, over the past year or so, basic commodities from corn and wheat, to copper, silver and oil are all in an inflationary mode. Up to this point, manufacturers have been willing to absorb modest price increases in their raw material costs, thereby sacrificing margin. However, this is beginning to change - and this could be a game changer. The reason its a game changer is simple - it totally changes the psychological nature of the marketplace. And psychology impacts everything from pricing strategies, to buying decisions. Wait and see suddenly becomes Just Do It! Because it will likely be higher tomorrow.

Granted, not everyone is being proactive in implementing the price increase agenda. In fact, I suspect your salespeople are protecters of “the status-quo.” After all, they have been accustomed to pitching management why they needed to drop prices over the past decade, not increase them. In fact today many sales people literally don’t know how to execute a price increase strategy. If this is the case, here are a few strategies to nudge them in the right direction.

  • Educate Your Salesforce: You may need to open your books so they understand the pricing pressures you’re exposed to - everything from commodity prices (copper, steel, wheat, oil …), to individual parts you must purchase. If they understand the dynamics of the marketplace, they’re better able to sell it.
  • Change The Compensation Package: If you bonus your salepeople on sales dollars - change it. Sales people are not known to protect margin, at least until it impacts them directly. Bonuses must be based on margins!
  • Announce It: Price increases should never be a last-second surprise. Your customers are hoping you don’t raise prices, yet are fully expecting you’ll need to raise prices. Give them a heads up so they can change their prices proactively.
  • Be Proactive: Price increases in the 3-5% range are generally better received than increases of 8-10%. Small, yet significant price increases will be less likely to encourage competitive shopping. However if you’re already behind the 8 Ball, an 8-10% price increase might be necessary.
  • Watch Your Accounts Receivables: Price increases can be a huge strain on your cash flow as raw material costs increase. However equally important is your accounts receivables, especially if customers attempt to stretch out their payment schedules.

Let’s be honest, this will be the first major exposure to significant inflation for many of your employees. Oh they saw $4.00 gasoline a couple years ago, however during this period, many companies held their prices due to competitive pricing pressures in the marketplace. Today, things will likely be different. All indications suggest a sustained inflationary period in front of us. And when it comes to inflation, being proactive is bliss, being reactive is a killer.

What are you doing to stay one step ahead of the inflation game?

23 M.P.H. Is Plenty

Sunday, February 20th, 2011

Recently. I travelled up to Bayfield, WI to go dogsledding at Wolfsong Adventures. It’s an activity that you might want to consider adding to your bucketlist. Think of it. Cold air. Beautiful northshore scenery. Dogs that love to work for you and with you to their hearts delight. Magic! However, the inspiration for this post did not come while dogsledding, but rather following it. My friend happened to take me past the Wild Rice Restaurant in Bayfield, known for their fine cuisine and elegant dining. And along the road I came across this sign.

0281I thought this sign was unique and I sent a copy to Dan Pink, which is posted under the title Emotionallly intelligent signage in Green Bay Packer country. However as I thought about it more, I pondered the wisdom of this signage inside many organizations.

Most companies are designed to go fast, just like selecting a team of dogs for dogsledding. It is speed, endurance and maybe a bit of luck that wins the race. But the question is, “When is 23 M.P.H. Plenty? I believe this is a relevant question for most business leaders to ask. Here are a few of the reasons why this might be relevant.

Safety: Speed limits are put in place to ensure the safety of those traveling the road. When speed limits are exceeded, the potential for harm increases exponentially, which incidentally can also occur inside organizations. Remember speed limits minimize risk and at times, slowing down is required.

Observation: At times one needs to slow down to smell the roses, i.e. to observe the landscape. Keen observation can be linked to innovation and numerous activities essential to designing the lean organization. There is no doubt that as speed increases, our ability to observe is diminished.

Focus: As speed increases, one’s focus must increase accordingly. At times this is the right answer, at other times, it can spell disaster. For instance, Management By Walking Around doesn’t occur by going 100 M.P.H., but rather MBWA at 23M.P.H. is plenty.

Creativity: Creativity can occur anywhere and at any speed. However I can bet that when an idea is spawned, the nurturing and developmental part of the idea will force you to slow down. This is why companies like 3M and Google grant play time into their employees work schedule. Yes, too much speed can kill a good idea.

What other aspects of 23 mph is plenty resonate with you?

We’ve Seen It All Before

Tuesday, November 16th, 2010

The World can and often is a scary place to navigate. It’s as if dragons are lurking around every corner and magicians take up residence in the middle of major thorofares to demonstrate their powers. Such seems to be a good analogy for what is going on inside the European Union and their ongoing debt crisis by member countries. The latest and most challenging to date - Ireland.

A recent article titled Euro Dominos Will Fall Until Currency Is Split by Matthew Lynn paints the picture of “What Could Be…”

The euro has turned into a bankruptcy machine. Once the markets have finished with Ireland, they will simply move on to Portugal and Spain, and after that to Italy and France.

There is a domino effect at work, and, with each rescue, the fault lines within the euro grow wider and wider. This process isn’t going to stop until the euro is taken apart…

In each country, it will be a different trigger that causes a collapse in financial confidence. The root cause is the same, though. When the euro was launched, it was a big bet that sharing the same currency would make a group of very different economies converge, and so allow the European Central Bank to operate a single monetary policy for all of them.

It was an interesting theory, but it turned out to be wrong. The economies are just too different to allow a single central bank to manage all of them. Interest rates are always wrong everywhere. How that expresses itself varies. In Greece, it was a fiscal crisis. In Ireland, a banking collapse. In Spain, a construction bubble that burst. In Germany, a massive trade surplus. But, like a river looking for the sea, it always comes out somewhere.

This crisis will keep moving from country to country. The only permanent fix is splitting up the euro into more manageable currency areas. Until the euro-areas leaders recognize that simple truth, every bailout they come up with is only going to shift the attacks elsewhere.

Back in May in an article titled Another Fine Mess - Spain, I wrote:

The formation of the European Union took decades to create and may take only a couple of years to destroy. The foundational concepts behind the Euro were solid, and generally worked well in improving Europe’s position in the World marketplace. However today, everything appears to be unfolding.

What is maybe most intriguing is that the formation of the European Central Bank and the creation of a single currency was to simplify things. In the end, the role the central bank plays has made it increasingly complex for member countries to navigate, much less prosper. And maybe this is the big take away. When Simplicity is trumped by Complexity, problems of magnitude will emerge. And the magnitude of this problem appears to be growing exponentially.

Underestimating a Silent Problem

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Risk. Exposure. Liability. These are words that should be at the forefront of every conversation when a silent problem is identified ( a problem that has been avoided, neglected, gone unnoticed, or been intentionally silenced). The reason being, too often we underestimate the real impact a silent problem can have on an organization, and its share price. For instance, we need look no further than Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Madoff, Toyota, and now BP. In each of these and 100s of other of instances, while the crisis on the surface appeared under control, in reality things were totally out of control. Such can be the impact of a silent problem.

 In a recent Reuters article titled Wall Street Said Buy, Buy, Buy BP Stock As Gulf Crisis Unfolded illustrates how analysts often underestimate the financial impact of disasters that eminate from silent problems. The story states:

As early word of BP’s Deepwater Horizon blowout began spreading, investors panicked. After closing above $60 before the April 20 disaster, the energy giant’s shares plunged almost 20 percent in New York, to below $50, in just two weeks.

It is not hard to understand why. Even then, the out-of-control oil spill in the midst of rich fishing grounds and nearby resort beaches raised the specter of horrific damages and untold potential liabilities.

Yet, nearly to a person, the dozens of securities analysts who followed the British oil giant were unfazed. As BP (BP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares continued to drop, most were screaming the same message: buy, baby, buy.

Credit Suisse, which had a “buy” rating on the stock at the time, did not even mention the accident in an April 28 report. The firm upgraded earnings estimates after BP reported strong quarterly results the day before.

A day later, with BP’s shares then down 11 percent, Citigroup’s Mark Fletcher weighed in. He argued that the decline was “disproportionate to the likely costs to the company, even assuming damages can be claimed.” In the same report, he estimated BP’s total share of the cleanup at just $450 million — today, conservative guesses put the figure at $10 billion to $20 billion.

Around that time, Morgan Stanley was among the chorus citing the strong rebound of Exxon (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares after the 1989 Valdez tanker spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, as a reason to be bullish. “We think the sell-off presents an attractive buying opportunity for investors with medium-term investment horizons,” the firm wrote.

All told, 27 of 34 analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters rated the stock “buy” or “outperform” as recently as May 11. The other seven rated the shares “hold.” There was not a single rating of “sell” or “underperform” among those tracked.

The BP crisis is horriffic. It’s impact will be felt for years, and probably decades. And when we look at the evidence, it was a problem being intentionally silenced, and no one screamed Wolf!

Anatomy Of A Catastrophe

Friday, June 4th, 2010

Michael Roberto profiled the anatomy of a catastrophe over at his blog, and I found it to be insightful and definitely worth promoting. Here it is:

1. Catastrophic failures generally do not have a single root cause. They are typically the result of a chain of errors, mistakes, and small failures.

2. People and organizations often downplay ambiguous threats, i.e. warning signs, that crop out in the days, weeks, and months prior to the catastrophe. (Yes, we too often overlook weak signals starring us in the face.) 

3. Organizations often have cultures that don’t promote sufficient candor and open dialogue. Thus, people with knowledge about critical risks may not speak up about their concerns regarding a potential failure. (This is an area that organizations could easily correct through training and other easily implementable processes.)

4. People with intuitive concerns about certain risks sometimes are dismissed because they lack extensive data to support their concerns.  (It’s easy to dismiss someone under the guise of “You don’t know what you’re talking about.” Most of the time this is correct, however on occassion their wisdom can save the day.)

5. Organizations often overestimate how human and system redundancy they have in place to protect them from catastrophe. (Oftentimes, systems were adequate yesterday, yet insufficient for today’s needs. Finding the time and resources to examine the adequacy of systems and processes is difficult, yet important in a cash-strapped organization.)

6. People often underestimate the probability of what they perceive to be extremely low probability events. (This is where scenario planning can provide insights into the “What Ifs” of your world.)

7. Cognitive biases often distort managerial judgments, contributing to catastrophe. (I would also add that the emotional connection to judgements and decision-making often distort the outcome.)

If and when the BP Story slows and investigations into “What Really Happened” begin to emerge, the storyline will resemble that of Toyota, the financial crisis and numerous other stories. And the conclusion will be, “This too was preventable.” The technology to prevent it was present. The warning signs were present to take precautionary steps. The resources and conviction  to move forward is what was missing. Hopefully, some day we will learn the lessons of Silent Problems.

Toyota’s Who Is No. 1 Challenge

Friday, January 29th, 2010

Everyone knows the challenge Toyota Motor Company is facing with sticky gas pedals. We know that Toyota and its dealers have suspended manufacturing and sales of the affected models. We know that millions of current owners are greatly concerned about the cars they drive to work or use to transport their family. We know that a design fix has been made by Toyota’s supplier CTS, and it is shipping. We don’t know who will receive the limited resource (the new pedal design) first.

So here is Toyota’s Who Is No. 1 Challenge.

The Factory Scenario: If the factory receives the parts first, production facilities can be restarted, 1000s of employees will move back to a normal work schedule, and new cars can be shipped to dealers and ultimately purchased by consumers.

The Dealer Scenario: If the dealers start to receive the updated pedal assemblies first, they can begin installing them on cars in their lots, which will enable new car sales to resume. In turn, plants will remain idol and cars currently in use will remain at risk.

The Customer Scenario: If the customer is the top priority, new pedal assemblies will be shipped to dealers and cars with defective pedals that are currently in use can be repaired, thereby satisfying the needs of the existent customer. In this scenario, plants remain idle, and new cars on dealer lots aren’t available for sell.

The Modification: Toyota and its supplier CTS is talking about providing a modifaction kit for cars currently in use. This would allow updated pedal assemblies to be used by the factory and dealer installs on new cars currently sitting on dealer lots. Will customers be truly satisfied with a so-called fix?

Which scenario will Toyota pursue? Which scenario should Toyota pursue?

It’s a tricky question, because it gets to the crux of “Who is No. 1.” If Corporate Profits are Number 1, factories will receive the assemblies and a few might leak through to the dealers. If the Dealer is No. 1, dealers can begin moving stagnant inventory and keep their sales staff productive. If the Customer is No. 1, consumers will feel valued and might be forgiving.

Now let’s take one additional piece of information into consideration, this being Toyota’s Mission and Values Statements.

Mission Statement

“To attract and attain customers with high-valued products and services and the most satisfying ownership experience in America.”

Vision Statement

“To be the most successful and respected car company in America.”

 

With everything now on the line. Which next step should Toyota pursue? I believe their next step will truly determine whether or not they live their Mission and Vision Statements.  I believe it will define Toyota’s future success, or decline. Unfortunately, it could have all be avoided.

What do you think? Which demand point should recieve the new pedal assemblies?

Tiger Woods vs. Toyota Motor Company

Thursday, January 28th, 2010

What do Tiger Woods and Toyota Motor Company have in common?

a. Both have throttles that can stick open?
b. Both were No. 1 before their fall?
c. Both have had their images and brands severely bruised?
d. Both held silent problems that eventually surfaced with a vengeance?
e. All of the above?

The answer of course is “All of the Above.” Okay, “a.” was maybe a little off base, but I’m certain you catch my drift. However, there is no doubt that Tiger and Toyota are equally guilty of b, c and d.

Over the past year, I’ve repeatedly stated in this blog that Toyota has a serious problem relative to the “Silent Problems” (problems that are being avoided, neglected, going unnoticed, or being intentionally silenced) inside its organization. And as is the case with silent problems, if not dealt with early, they will emerge with a vengeance, which is exactly the case with Tiger Woods and Toyota.

Today, a story by Tom Krisher (AP) titledd “Can Toyota rev back from crisis?” gets to the heart of silent problems as relates to Toyota. Krisher writes,

Crisis managers say the issues with the pedals likely surfaced early on at lower levels of the organization, but no one wanted to deliver bad news to the boss.

“The story just kind of drags on. That’s just deadly for a reputation,” said Brenda Wrigley, chair of the public relations department at Syracuse University’s School of Public Communications. “It just spirals into a big situation that’s probably going to have long-term financial impact for the company.”

In March of 2007, Toyota started getting reports of gas pedals being slow to rise after being depressed for acceleration. Engineers fixed the problem in the Tundra pickup early in 2008.

But troubles persisted in other models, eventually leading to last week’s recall and the plans to suspend sales and shut down six factories while Toyota tries to fix the problems.

The time has come for the concept of Silent Problems to take center stage. 12 months ago, Toyota appeared invinciple, today it is struggling to survive. All because a silent problem inside the organization was allowed to germinate, grow and eventually explode. In the process, billions of dollars of brand equity has been lost. And my guess is, Toyota will never fully recover.

If you’re a business leader or manager, I have a couple of suggestions.

  1. You must read the book Without Warning. It will provide the context around Silent Problems and why they are so dangerous. And the book will provide a path on how to surface and eventually solve Silent Problems.
  2. If you have concerns that Silent Problems reside inside your organization, conduct a Silent Problem Audit.
  3. Get out there and start looking, hearing and questioning - What really is going on that you’re not aware of.  Do the WalkAround.

Today, its easy to focus on strategy, efficiencies and innovation. However, one thing can trump them, this being the Silence that resides in your organization. If it can happen to Toyota, it could also happen to you.

If you have a Silent Problem concern, give me a call at 651-436-3962, I’d be delighted to discuss the process with you further.

GM, Customer Service & Reputation

Friday, December 4th, 2009

If you challenge an individuals reputation, you’d better be ready to get in a fight. For instance, I was recently shown a letter from GM dealer, Tom Sparks Automotive, of DeKalb, IL that was sent out to their customers. Here is what it said:

In keeping with our commitment to inform our customers, we are writing this letter to let you know about some changes taking place, as well as inform some of the misinformation that you might be receiving through the mail from the new General Motors.

After a thorough review of our relationship with GM, we have decided to completely break ties with them, causing us to consolidate operations… We want you to know that contrary to the letters you have received from GM in regard to our service, our trained technicians who have serviced your car in the past can still service your car, with only one exception: manufacturer warranty work…One of the things that we have never compromised on is the service you receive in our repair facility. According to GM’s policies and procedures book, a dealer is not supposed to let the customer know of any problems that your car might be experiencing if the customer is not aware of the problem. Not adhering to this policy the dealer risks the possibility of not being paid for the service by GM…

We strongly believe that GM, through its reinvention process, has forgotten the needs of the customer and that is something we at Tom Sparks are not willing to do… Thank you for your business, and we look forward to seeing you soon. (letter from Tom Sparks Automotive)

Survival is a challenging problem in today’s economy, especially in the automotive marketplace. As GM and Chrysler attempt to reinvent themselves, it’s a place where emotions speak loudly, as this letter demonstrates. But more importantly, everything is escalated when reputation is put on the line. And in the automotive industry, reputation plays an integral role in everything; from sales, to service, to customer satisfaction. It’s what made GM great, and what helped destroy it. However as this letter illustrates, GMs move to expel certain dealers through bankruptcy (although they’re now reconsidering this) has many unintended consequences, especially when a dealer’s reputation has been put on the line.

Bottom Line: Reputation is a critical attribute for every organization. This letter illustrates just a few of the many challenges GM is and will encounter as they attempt to rebuild their automotive customer base. Good luck, you’ll need it.

Structured to go Broke

Monday, August 17th, 2009

The industry is just not structured to modify production in response to reduced demand. The industry is basically structured to go broke.  David Kruse, commodity trading adviser at CommStock Investments Inc.

The above quote came from a Bloomberg article describing the current state of the swine industry. For many years, I worked in agribusiness with direct ties to the swine industry. Starting in the 80s and 90s, the industry transitioned from small herds to the modern complexes, which dominate the industry today. These modern units were designed for efficiency with the goal of becoming world class production entities. And along the way the US pork industry changed, becoming heavily tied to exports, especially Asia. Then came H1N1, and the industry hasn’t recovered yet.

The point of this blog posting isn’t about the swine industry and the economic challenges it’s facing. This post is about industries that could be structured to go broke. On the surface this is an absurd concept, since all industries and companies are structured and designed for success. Right? If they weren’t structured for success, from a Darwinian perspective they shouldn’t exist. However, I’m pondering whether the very nature of some industries/companies, predispose them to be structured for failure. What do you think?

I came up with a few idustries that might lie on success/broke fault line.

  1. Biofuels Industry
  2. Mining Industry
  3. Automotive industry
  4. International Shipping Industry
  5. Airline Industry

As I look at this list, some common themes begin to surface. For instance;

  • High fixed cost structure
  • Capacity reduction difficult and costly to achieve
  • Commodity based pricing structure
  • Efficiency tied to volume

In good times, these industries typically perform admirably well, often times reporting record profits. However when the economic outlook turns, their fortunes also turn. Record profits become record losses. Everyone talks about excess capacity, yet capacity reduction is slow and painful. And the return to profitabilty is equally slow and painful.

Bottom Line: Most companies find their way into financial distress due to poor decisions, weak leadership and a changing economic landscape. However, can it be that some industries are destined to go broke? I’d appreciate you thoughts and ideas.

Tata Has A Boo Boo?

Friday, June 26th, 2009

A year ago, Tata Motors bought the Land Rover and Jaguar brands from Ford Motor Company for $2.4 billion. Today, Tata announced their first loss in seven years. The reason. Land Rover and Jaguar. Vikhas Seghal of Booz & Co into perspective (as reported by Bloomberg).

“Turning around Jaguar Land Rover is a Herculean task,” said Vikas Sehgal, a Chicago-based partner at Booz & Co., an industry consultant. “It’s challenging because a company focused on the mass market with basic technologies is trying to turn around a premium marquee brand with complicated technologies and low volumes.”

“The bridge from the Nano to Jaguar XF is probably the biggest that exists in the industry,” Sehgal said. “A $2,500 car and a $100,000 car: no other company in the world has a portfolio that wide.”

From the moment Tata bought Land Rover & Jaguar from Ford, a Silent Problem was underway. Even if the economic downturn hadn’t occurred, numerous challenges were on the horizon. Tata saw opportunity, when they should have taken a second and then a third look. Ford saw a way to shore up their balance sheet, and won.

With the introduction of the Nano, the world’s cheapest car just a month away, Tata Motors had the opportunity to become a dangerous competitor in the marketplace. Instead, they just wasted that opportunity. Their momentum has slowed and now they’re forced to play defence. This is a perilous position to be in.

Yes, Tata had a Boo Boo…

Bottom Line: Acquisitions are filled with potential problems, many of them of the silent variety. In this case silent problems related cultural fit, process & procedures and of “fit” are but a few. A year ago, Tata Motors was on the fast track, today they could easily be destined for the junkyard.

Be the one to see it coming!

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Without Warning - Rondey Johnson

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