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Two Kinds Of C.E.O.

February 3rd, 2011

Over the past 6+ years, I’ve spent most of my time working with business executives of small to mid-sized organizations under the Vistage International umbrella. It’s work that is fulfilling and business owners often see a huge impact in their business. I think I would call it - “the small business competitive advantage.” Over the years I’ve worked with many companies that were able to maintain their positive momentum because they received critical insight from their peer group and from me, their business coach. For me, there is no higher calling than to assist small business growth in a world marketplace. I therefore was introduced to a recent article in the NY Times featuring Raphael Pastor - the CEO of Vistage. It goes:

I recently had an interesting conversation with Rafael Pastor, the chairman and chief executive of Vistage, a leading organization for chief executives. He relayed a story that one of his members had told him. This particular C.E.O. has a school-age son who came home one day and asked if his father would call himself something other than a C.E.O. It seems that the boy’s classmates were giving him a hard time about the fact that his father runs a company — as if it were something to be embarrassed by. My first thought was, “What?” Maybe I could understand it if his father were a politician! But then I started thinking….

Anyone who understands advertising knows that repetition is the key to creating a “brand.” Unfortunately with all of the reports of greed, dishonesty and incompetence, the C.E.O. brand is now pretty well established. But there’s an aspect of this that is not well understood. There are actually two kinds of C.E.O. — those who run big public companies and those who own and operate smaller, privately owned companies.

Let me be clear: this is not about big-company chief executives being greedy and small-company chief executives being honorable. It is about how connected the C.E.O is to the success of the company. It is about the consequences if things don’t work out. It is about how much risk the C.E.O. assumes. While it’s not uncommon for public company chief executives to walk away from their jobs with millions of dollars for their trouble and for the trouble they cause employees and stockholders, small-company chief executives rarely get to do that.

Commitment is what makes small business great, and at the same time can make it frail. Mr. Pastor then states:

To many, betting the house may seem an insane risk to take. And maybe it is. But if small-business owners weren’t willing to take that risk, there would be far fewer small businesses in America. You see, many entrepreneurs are what I would call “all in”: all of their money, most of their time, and most of their ego and self worth and pride are involved. Sometimes they put too much in, at the expense of their families and general well-being…

But the fact is that when small company chief executives fail, they often face dire consequences. And that’s an aspect of business ownership that is rarely noted in the glamorized view of entrepreneurship that we frequently see portrayed. Nor is it fully understood by public officials who always seem eager to have small businesses borrow more aggressively and hire more aggressively.

I encourage you to read the article in total - it’s spot on. Entreprenuership is what made the U.S. great. And as this article states, most of the time its an “all in” game. Need I say more. Let’s honor those entrepreneurs we know and support them so they’re able to accomplish really great things.

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Brilliant or Brazen? The Groupon Mystery

January 25th, 2011

The Internet is a wild and at times scary place. It’s where modern day cowboys and Texas wildcatters reside. Its filled with technologically savvy geeks, which at times are flush with money. And always, there is a huge success story just around the corner. 

Today, Groupon, the online coupon site is in the limelight. And they’ve received a lot of notoriety for turning down a $6 Billion offer from Internet behemoth, Google in December 2010. Now granted, this is pale in comparison to the social networking site Facebook, who received additional funding of $1.5 Billion recently, thereby valuing it at $50 Billion. However I also know that for every big time winner, there are a multitude of losers. Just think of Yahoo and their refusal to be acquired by Microsoft jsut a couple years ago.

Today, I have to wonder if Groupon’s cool reception to Google’s $6 Billion offer was Brilliant or Brazen. And the more I think about it, the more I believe Groupon should have taken the cash. Some of my reasons being:

  1. Groupon is a high cost advertising model for companies to implement. Groupon’s success formula is to find vendors that will cut their prices by upwards of 50%, of which Groupon will take 50% of that amount. In effect, the vendor is offering upwards of a75% discount on their goods and services. This may bring in sales, however for most companies, this is not a success formula. And I will bet that Groupon’s 50% take will shrink over time.
  2. Groupon’s business model is easily duplicated and being duplicated. Already a multitude of me-too companies have entered the market, including Amazon’s $175 Million acquisition of LivingSocial. And Google is readying a similar product for quick release. Either way, the market will likely become crowded with a limited supply of vendors.
  3. The coupon model is unproven at this stage of the game. In essence, the whole business model could implode just as easily as it could explode. Like I said, Groupon is a high priced marketing program that can deliver results, but severly impacts profitability.

From my perspective, the nest 6-12 months will be interesting for the spectators watching the buildout of Groupon. It will either be one of the great success stories, or one of the greatest blunders of all time. Time will tell.

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Toyota’s Silent Problem Nightmare Still Haunts

January 11th, 2011

Predicting the future is filled with misses, near misses and from time-to-time a direct hit. I would like to think that when it came to predicting Toyota’s challenged future over the past year, my analysis was a direct hit. For instance, here are a few of the predictions I made.

Today, Toyota is facing increasing competition from companies like Ford & GM, Hyundai & Kia, and of course VW, Audi, BMW and others. Each of these have picked up their game in recent years and are willing to take Toyota head-on. However what is killing Toyota slowly and quietly is not competion. To the contrary, Toyota’s brand and reputation have eroded in areas where it was prviously strong like quality, engineering, dependibility, value and safety. In essence, very few proudly state, “I drive a Toyota” today. From my perspective, Toyota will continue to be a company in turmoil, with an eroding value proposition.  June 2010

Today, Toyota’s Silent Problems of yesterday (the problems Toyota has been avoiding, neglecting and intentionally silencing) are exerting a tremendous force on the company and the organization. These legal and quality issues will continue to be a major distraction, and will impact everything from employee turnover, to productivity, to profitability. Toyota continues to be a test case for the ideas in unleashed in my book, Without Warning.  April 2010

Toyota’s problems are just now beginning to surface as lawsuits surface and brand loyalty is tarnished. And as Toyota’s brand suffers, brands such as Ford, Suburu, Honda and Hyundai are positioned to fill the void. Although Toyota’s stock price has recovered in recent weeks, Toyota’s future is far from over.  March 2010

The future of Toyota lies in the hands of Toyota. What did they learn, if anything? Will they change the culture inside Toyota, so it more closely resembles the culture inside their assembly plants? Will they quit blaming and start owning the problem? Will they learn from their mistakes?

My guess is, Toyota will survive. However, whether or not Toyota thrives is a different question. For Toyota to thrive, it will have to show the world it deserves their trust, and to achieve this, Toyota will have to change their ways. And as we have come to learn, this is very difficult to achieve in the Japanese culture.  March 2010

Today, the real impact on Toyota’s brand are being exposed.

From Bloomberg: Toyota Motor Corp.’s U.S. vehicle sales fell in 2010 while industrywide sales rose 11 percent and every other major automaker reported gains. Ford Motor Co. moved up to second place behind only General Motors Co.

Ford displaced Toyota as No. 2 in the U.S. with 1.97 million vehicles sold in the year, up 17 percent from 2009, compared with Toyota’s sales of 1.76 million cars and trucks. GM retained the top spot with U.S. sales of 2.22 million vehicles, an increase of 7 percent. Deliveries in December accelerated to the fastest pace of the year.

The black clouds from Toyota’s recalls just don’t seem to go away,” said Jesse Toprak, vice president of industry trends for Santa Monica, California-based auto pricing website Truecar.com. “We saw Ford, GM and Hyundai-Kia come on strong. Brand loyalty isn’t what it used to be.”

Toyota’s story continues and a future story is unfolding. Toyota has lost in mojo! Toyota is quickly beginning to resemble GM of 5 and 10 years ago. Toyota’s product line-up is tired and uninspiring. Toyota is no longer leading in the arena of innovation or quality. Quite simply, “There is no one standing in line waiting for the chance to buy a Toyota!” In essence, Toyota is in trouble.

Toyota’s problems were being deliberately silenced. However once the cat got out of the bag, Toyota’s competitive advantages simply evaporated. Their dirty laundry was out in the open for everyone to see. Yes, Toyota’s silent problems will continue to impact their future.

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Choose Your Partner Well

January 4th, 2011

Over the past year, there has been an interesting fight building between Kraft Foods and Starbucks Coffee. Now granted, Kraft has been in a food fight of sorts with many over the past decade. Their C-Suite has been a revolving door. Their stock has been an underperformer. And they had a interesting tussle in their acquisition of Cadbury over the past couple of years. This is how Roger Carr, then CEO of Cadbury described Kraft at the time:

In my letter of 31st August, I informed you that the Board had rejected your unsolicited proposal on the grounds that it is unattractive and fundamentally undervalues Cadbury.  Under your proposal, Cadbury would be absorbed into Kraft’s low growth, conglomerate business model, an unappealing prospect which contrasts sharply with our strategy to be a pure play confectionery company… Your proposal is for Cadbury shareholders to exchange shares in a pure-play confectionery business for cash and shares in Kraft, a company with a considerably less focused business mix and historically lower growth

In recent weeks, Kraft has entered into another food fight, this time with Starbucks, which Bloomberg has done a nice job capturing why Starbucks wants out of their Kraft distribution agreement.

Starbucks Corp., the world’s largest coffee chain, will miss out on a surge in home-brewing unless it can break a 13-year-old deal that ties its fortunes to Kraft Foods Inc.’s slow-selling Tassimo machine.

Under the terms of the deal, Starbucks can’t put its coffee in the Keurig Home Brewer, which dominates the U.S. market for machines that make single cups of coffee in a minute or less. Kraft’s brewing system has 2.6 percent of the market; Keurig, owned by Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc., has 71 percent…

In the 52 weeks ending Oct. 31, the single-cup market, which excludes instant coffee, generated almost $200 million worth of U.S. sales, according to SymphonyIRI Group, a Chicago- based firm that tracks supermarkets. While that is 5.2 percent of the overall coffee category, single-cup coffee sales are growing 28 times as fast as the overall coffee market.

For the 12 months ending in October, Via generated $16.8 million worth of sales in U.S. groceries, according to SymphonyIRI. During the same period, Green Mountain K-Cups alone rang up $72 million in U.S. grocery sales.

The legal tussle underway between Starbucks and Kraft is a lose-lose scenario. And here is the really sad part. Kraft according to the news reports is trying to lock in a client. A client that no longer sees value in their relationship. A client that is willing to air their dirty laundry in public circles. A client that is downright angry!

Time and the courts will decide the eventual outcome. However, I am willing to bet on one thing. The Kraft/Starbucks deal will become another case study in the annals of time. It will serve as a reminder just how important it is to choose your partner(s) carefully.

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The Marriage Game

December 9th, 2010

The marriage game (M&A) is quite interesting to watch in the business world. Who decides to court whom? Why are they attracted to each other? Is this a marriage of equals, of necessity or is it strategic? Is this a cash, stock, asset or some combination of the above? And most importantly, how are the various parcels of the deal valued - how much “good will” is in the equation?

M&A is always a high stakes, high profile game. It’s a game business people love to follow. And for a select few, some actually engage in the line-by-line details of the transaction (or what some might want to refer to as “the dance”). For some, it’s simply magical. For this reason, the news reports of Borders possible interest in acquiring Barnes & Noble is fascinating. And what about the renewed Yahoo and AOL merger possibility?

While these deals may be fascinating, most of the time, they’re equally puzzling. Why would they do that? What could they be thinking? I wonder what type of pipe they’re smoking today?

To put things in perspective. The chances of successful marriage (50-50 bet) is significantly greater than that of a successful merger (the common figure being that 85% of all mergers won’t live up to their pre-merger hype). And maybe that is the important question to ask. “I wonder if this marriage is going to last?”

And the answer to that question is simple. Time will tell…”

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The World in 2011

November 30th, 2010

I just received my issue of “The World in 2011″ put out by The Economist. As the economic/banking turmoil heightens, the sharp drop in the Democrats power base in the U.S. is rationalized and a multitude of other global tides begin their shift, 2011 is positioned to be a pivotal year for many economies and possibly the world. Just taking a quick look at a few of the articles titles will provide a glimpse into what is possible.

  • Welcome to a zero-sum world - the mood will be tense: get used to it. The era of good feelings associated with the heyday of globalisation has gone for ever.
  • Iran’s president nuked by the economy? The threat will come from the street.  It is the conomy that could lead to Mr. Ahmadinejad’s downfall.
  • Powerhouse Deutschland - Germany will increase its influence on the euro-zone economy
  • The emerald no longer shines - Irish eyes are not smiling
  • Budget butchery - This is going to hurt
  • Markets in a muddle - Watch out for currency confusion. Perhaps 2011 will be a year in which currencies dominate the news.
  • A fight to the death - Scientists should at long last be able to see a route to the total eradication of malaria.

At the very least, The Economist puts a spotlight on what is possible in 2011. And to say the least, business leaders, companies, countries and the world will find 2011 challenging to navigate. Those that anticipate the unexpected will be in the best position to lead, and more importantly, benefit from the turmoil that surrounds the globe.

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Denny Hecker was a Hacker

November 24th, 2010

There’s an old saying, “You can’t teach an old dog new tricks.” At times I thnk there should be a second saying, “If an old dog has learned some bad tricks, they’re difficult to unlearn.” In the State of Minnesota, the so-called frozen tundra to the north, a persistant news story has evolved over the past couple of years, this being Denny Hecker. Denny Hecker was a business mogul with diverse interests in automotive dealerships, car rental agencies, leasing companies and a multitude of other companies. If my memory serves me correct, at one time he had 250+ companies, which should have been a yellow flag that something might be afoul.

About a year and a half ago, the Denny Hecker empire came unglued. MPR News has a timetable up to April 12, 2010 here. One might think that an individual that has fallen from the sky and crashed just might change their ways - just a little bit. However as time moves on, nothing appears to have changed, at least according to a recent article in the Pioneer Press. It states

Jailed Twin Cities auto dealership mogul Denny Hecker used online bidding to secretly purchase some of his former belongings — a dirt bike and a Harley-Davidson motorcycle — at a bankruptcy auction in May, according to the trustee handling his bankruptcy estate.

Trustee Randy Seaver is trying to find out where Hecker got the nearly $17,000 he used to buy the items.

The purchases occurred at a time when Hecker claimed he was so broke that taxpayer-funded attorneys were representing him in his criminal fraud case.

As I’ve watched this story unfold, it occurred to me that Denny Hecker was never a business person, although the companies with his name attached to them might suggest otherwise. Denny Hecker in reality was no more than a high profile hacker. According to the dictionary: A hacker is a term used by some to mean “a clever programmer” and by others, especially those in popular media, to mean “someone who tries to break into computer systems.”

In the case of Denny Hecker, he was a clever business person that tried to break into business and governmental systems for personal gain. Some might consider this a con man, which quite honestly is an outdated term for the 21st century. The term business hacker feels more in-tune with the times. And definitely is appropriate when talking about Denny Hecker.

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We’ve Seen It All Before

November 16th, 2010

The World can and often is a scary place to navigate. It’s as if dragons are lurking around every corner and magicians take up residence in the middle of major thorofares to demonstrate their powers. Such seems to be a good analogy for what is going on inside the European Union and their ongoing debt crisis by member countries. The latest and most challenging to date - Ireland.

A recent article titled Euro Dominos Will Fall Until Currency Is Split by Matthew Lynn paints the picture of “What Could Be…”

The euro has turned into a bankruptcy machine. Once the markets have finished with Ireland, they will simply move on to Portugal and Spain, and after that to Italy and France.

There is a domino effect at work, and, with each rescue, the fault lines within the euro grow wider and wider. This process isn’t going to stop until the euro is taken apart…

In each country, it will be a different trigger that causes a collapse in financial confidence. The root cause is the same, though. When the euro was launched, it was a big bet that sharing the same currency would make a group of very different economies converge, and so allow the European Central Bank to operate a single monetary policy for all of them.

It was an interesting theory, but it turned out to be wrong. The economies are just too different to allow a single central bank to manage all of them. Interest rates are always wrong everywhere. How that expresses itself varies. In Greece, it was a fiscal crisis. In Ireland, a banking collapse. In Spain, a construction bubble that burst. In Germany, a massive trade surplus. But, like a river looking for the sea, it always comes out somewhere.

This crisis will keep moving from country to country. The only permanent fix is splitting up the euro into more manageable currency areas. Until the euro-areas leaders recognize that simple truth, every bailout they come up with is only going to shift the attacks elsewhere.

Back in May in an article titled Another Fine Mess - Spain, I wrote:

The formation of the European Union took decades to create and may take only a couple of years to destroy. The foundational concepts behind the Euro were solid, and generally worked well in improving Europe’s position in the World marketplace. However today, everything appears to be unfolding.

What is maybe most intriguing is that the formation of the European Central Bank and the creation of a single currency was to simplify things. In the end, the role the central bank plays has made it increasingly complex for member countries to navigate, much less prosper. And maybe this is the big take away. When Simplicity is trumped by Complexity, problems of magnitude will emerge. And the magnitude of this problem appears to be growing exponentially.

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Social Media Bust?

November 1st, 2010

In recent years, a stampede to join the social media revolution has taken hold. New entreprenuerial companies are being formed daily. Many mainstream/slow to the social media party companies have even changed their stance and are dipping their toe in the social media waterbowl. And for others, there is an all-out assault, integrating social media tools such as facebook, twitter and a multitude of others across the organization.

I’ll be honest, I understand the big picture of social media, yet have always wondered about the increasing noise in the marketplace. I’ll admit that just maybe my direct involvement in numerous start-ups during the dot.com era of 10-years ago may have influenced my outlook slightly. However at the end of the day, I’ve wondered many times how much longer this social media explosion can last. Where will it lead us?

The other day I came across an interesting article. One that made me think, simply because I’ve had similar thoughts. The article is by Axel Schultze, and is titled, When the Social Media Bubble Burst.

Dick Lee asked today in LinkedIn: “We rarely see people as enthused as they are over social media. Among those recent rare times are: when the high-tech balloon popped; at the height of the housing bubble; just before the market crashed; and when Sarah Palin was nominated for VP. Hey, exuberance can be headiest just before the fall.”

I’d say YES – the social media bubble is about to burst. People are recognizing already that the endless hours of watching the incoming streams from Twitter and Facebook or all the status updates on LinkedIn are hours wasted. All the paid tweets and people or agencies, who have been hired to tweet are not going to contribute to the bottom line. And the fan pages people build to get “fans, followers, connections” are just hopes that it will do something for the business – but it won’t.

The article isn’t quite as apocolyptic as it sounds. However, it does suggest that the social media explosion may slow down, and possibly experience a pullback of sorts. It suggests that a lot of startups and mainstream media companies will need to rethink their strategies and HR needs if the current outlook changes. And in this, a separation of the chaff so to speak will occur. Quite simply, a significant shake up in the social media industry could occur.

Obviously, attempting to predict the future is sketchy at best. However, companies need to ask the question, “What if…” By anticipating the future, companies that are prepared will be better able to act quickly and swiftly. 

Conclusion: I encourage companies to create the numerous “What if…” scenarios relative to their social media plans for 2011 and beyond.

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It Kinda Makes Sense If…

October 26th, 2010

In another week, we’ll be at the end of another election cycle. And the likely outcome. The Democrats will lose the momentum they gained in the 2008 election cycle. While this turn of events is not unprecedented, its still a shocker for many. After all, the Democrats rolled to victory with much fanfare and a tremendous support for change from the electorate. A new President and a revitalized  Democratic party was in town.  Today however, it seems that everything 2008 is underwater, or at least, gasping for air.

It’s easy to portray that this is simply politics at work. However, I will offer up an alternate suggestion. The more partisan politics becomes, the more likely idea platforms put forth by party leaderswill  fall into the arena of “It kinda makes sense if …”

A couple of months ago I was in a conversation where someone said, “You know, it kinda makes sense if you don’t think about it too much.” What a brilliant statement! I realized at that moment, that this is a universal truth about so many things in our lives. For instance, have you noticed that so many things kinda make sense when you first look or think about them? It could be an acquisition, a new policy or program, a new product development idea, a new proposed marketing strategy… And how about government programs from health care reform, to extending unemployment benefits, to scientific research initiatives. They all make sense until…

And that is the problem, there are a plethora of ideas that make sense on the surface, yet don’t make sense in reality. It’s our role and responsibility to think about things, and place them under the spotlight of thought, analysis and debate. If we don’t, the potential for unintended consequences and the emergence of silent problems becomes magnified.

Caution, don’t let the attraction of “It kinda makes sense…” allow you to make poor and misguided decisions.

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