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Posts Tagged ‘Lehman Brothers’

Silent Problems & Persistently Bad News

Monday, July 12th, 2010

One might wonder why Toyota has been consistently delivering bad news since the initial brake recall some 6-months ago? And how about the falterig economies in Europe like Greece and Spain. And what about all the stories related to the financial crisis like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Citi Group and others in recet years? Its almost as if there was pent up bad news once the initial story broke loose. Then once the floodgats opened, the torrent of bad news was overwhelming.

For instance, last week I was working with a client that had experienced a barrage of silent problems surfacing in recent months. To say the least, the many layers of bad news was taking its toll. On the surface, it felt as if the sky was falling. However in reality, there was a cleansing process underway. It was painful, yet necessary. An excellent story relating to this phenomenon is Toyota, who has experienced a multitude of quality related problems in 200. This past week they announced a 2nd recall in less than a month, this one for defective engine valve springs. A recent news story notes:

Toyota knew two years ago about the engine problem behind its latest Lexus recall, even changing the spring part to correct it, but did not think a recall was warranted until recently, a company official said Tuesday.

Toyota Motor Corp. started Monday a global recall over engine defects in its Lexus luxury models sold around the world, as well as the Crown sold in Japan, moving to repair some 270,000 vehicles to replace valve springs — crucial engine components that are flawed and could cause vehicles to stall.

In August 2008, Toyota changed that spring part, making it thicker, to prevent the problem, spokesman Hideaki Homma told The Associated Press. That is why the latest recall does not affect vehicles produced after August 2008.

What Toyota is experiencing today with the high volume of recalls is typical in many situations. What is really being exposed here is a system and culture oriented towards avoidance and neglect. And now that a new course has been set, the torrent of silent problems is being vetted all at once. However in the end, this will become positive if the problems aren’t too big to manage. Eventually this will lead to new systems, new degrees of accountability and most importantly, an integral part of their new culture.

Underestimating a Silent Problem

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Risk. Exposure. Liability. These are words that should be at the forefront of every conversation when a silent problem is identified ( a problem that has been avoided, neglected, gone unnoticed, or been intentionally silenced). The reason being, too often we underestimate the real impact a silent problem can have on an organization, and its share price. For instance, we need look no further than Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Madoff, Toyota, and now BP. In each of these and 100s of other of instances, while the crisis on the surface appeared under control, in reality things were totally out of control. Such can be the impact of a silent problem.

 In a recent Reuters article titled Wall Street Said Buy, Buy, Buy BP Stock As Gulf Crisis Unfolded illustrates how analysts often underestimate the financial impact of disasters that eminate from silent problems. The story states:

As early word of BP’s Deepwater Horizon blowout began spreading, investors panicked. After closing above $60 before the April 20 disaster, the energy giant’s shares plunged almost 20 percent in New York, to below $50, in just two weeks.

It is not hard to understand why. Even then, the out-of-control oil spill in the midst of rich fishing grounds and nearby resort beaches raised the specter of horrific damages and untold potential liabilities.

Yet, nearly to a person, the dozens of securities analysts who followed the British oil giant were unfazed. As BP (BP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares continued to drop, most were screaming the same message: buy, baby, buy.

Credit Suisse, which had a “buy” rating on the stock at the time, did not even mention the accident in an April 28 report. The firm upgraded earnings estimates after BP reported strong quarterly results the day before.

A day later, with BP’s shares then down 11 percent, Citigroup’s Mark Fletcher weighed in. He argued that the decline was “disproportionate to the likely costs to the company, even assuming damages can be claimed.” In the same report, he estimated BP’s total share of the cleanup at just $450 million — today, conservative guesses put the figure at $10 billion to $20 billion.

Around that time, Morgan Stanley was among the chorus citing the strong rebound of Exxon (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares after the 1989 Valdez tanker spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, as a reason to be bullish. “We think the sell-off presents an attractive buying opportunity for investors with medium-term investment horizons,” the firm wrote.

All told, 27 of 34 analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters rated the stock “buy” or “outperform” as recently as May 11. The other seven rated the shares “hold.” There was not a single rating of “sell” or “underperform” among those tracked.

The BP crisis is horriffic. It’s impact will be felt for years, and probably decades. And when we look at the evidence, it was a problem being intentionally silenced, and no one screamed Wolf!

Silent Problem - Lehman Style

Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

The downfall of Lehman Brothers was the straw that broke the camel’s back. It was the trigger point that led to the most severe recession since the Great Depression. Yes, what happened at Lehman and how it happened is really important. The decision to allow Lehman Brothers to fail is a decision many wish they could do over. However, second-guessing will not change history, we can only learn from it hoping to avoid a similar downfall in the future.

As I have written about Lehman over that past year; many stories, facts and revelations have surfaced. Recently an article by Vicky Ward, author of ”The Devils Casino,” published “How Lehman’s Hidden Inner Circle Brought the Bank Down.” This article puts forth some of the underpinnings for Lehman’s demise. It states:

Sen. Chris Dodd, the Senate banking chair has asked former Lehman chief Dick Fuld to return to testify exactly how Lehman misled so many people… Perhaps some explanation may lie in an email I received today from one of Lehman’s most senior employees — someone who worked there for 17 years. He wrote to me off the record so I am not at liberty to disclose his identity, but he was very senior and widely respected.

He is not the only Lehmanite to have responded to my new book, The Devil’s Casino (Wiley). Many have thanked me for exposing a culture led (and ruined) by a tiny leadership that was egregious, isolated and mendacious.

What my e-mailer of today however points out is something that both Rep. Bacchus and Sen. Dodd may find useful as they follow up on Valukas’s report.

He wrote, “like many former colleagues, I’m astonished at how much we didn’t know about the workings of the inner circle.”

Note the last three words. “The Inner Circle.” This was not the whole Lehman’s executive committee. This was Fuld, Gregory, perhaps in reverse order, and then Gregory’s pet of the month, at one point Erin Callan, at another Mark Walsh. But it was a tiny unit, cut off from the rest of Lehman.

So, here we have Lehman:

An inner circle” at the top cut off from the rest. It fires people for telling the truth, and fails to promote the most competent executive until too late…. This culture didn’t spring up in its last few months…it festered for years. Whatever the SEC and FED missed in the bank’s final six months, the cabal at the top was already set in its ways and adept at hiding what it was really doing from not just the SEC, Fed and market — but its own senior management. That really is a horrifying culture, and one I am delighted to have exposed.

The workings of The Inner Circle was simple, they were fostering and festering a silent problem. A silent problem so great and so toxic that The Inner Circle knew they were sitting on a ticking time bomb. And the only one able to rescue them would be the Federal Government. The Inner Circle had placed their hat on the “Too Big To Fail” corner lot. In many respects, they were too big to fail, but the Fed allowed it to fail. And as is often the case, there is a lesson to be learned. That lesson is simple. Silent Problems tend to be the most challenging and disruptive problems of all. These silent problems can happen to companies big and small, sophisticated and crude, new and mature. And that is why my book Without Warning is such a important book to read, comprehend and understand. It discusses silent problems and how they take hold, morph and become so destructive. But more importantly, how to disrupt them, and solve them.

This is really important. Do it today.

Number 1 is the Loneliest

Monday, December 21st, 2009

Most organizations strive to be No. 1. It is the coveted spot. The position where success is realized. The position where trophies for excellence are offered. The position where power is garnered. However, it is also a very lonely and dangerous position to reside, because being No. 1 often breeds complacency and risky behavior.

A case in point is Toyota, a firm I’ve written about several times. Last weeks Economist, the front cover title was, Toyota slips up - Where the world’s biggest carmaker went wrong, and what it is learning from other corporate turnarounds.”

The article points out numerous areas where Toyota has become vulnerable while being in the No. 1 slot. 

  • Quality: “Toyota was a byword for quality and reliability. A few years ago its crown slipped when a number of qulity problems surfaced… For years Toyota has been the quality benchmark for every carmaker, but at the very moment it faltered, others were finally catching up”
  • Style: “As Car Magazine observed recently: ‘Excepting the small cars and the Prius, Toyota’s European range is as appetizing as an all you can eat tofu buffet.”
  • Safety: “Last month Toyota’s standing was dealt a further blow. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety… announced its highest rated cars and SUVs for 2010… Not one of the 27 vehicles it chose was a Toyota.”
  • Silent Problems: “In another class action suit, triggered by a former employee, a corporate lawyer named Dimitrios Biller. Toyota is accused of trying to cover up evidence that it knew some of its vehicles could be deadly in roll-over accidents… The suggestion that squeaky-clean Toyota’s behavior may have resembled that of Ford and GM, which in the distant past covered up problems with the Pinto and Corvair, is especially wounding.”
  • The Test: The test will be to keep the ingredients that have made Toyota great - the dependability and affordability - while adding the spice and the flavours that customers now demand. It will not be easy, and the competition has never looked more formidable. But by recognising the scale of Toyota’s problems, by proclaiming their urgency and then drawing on the firm’s strengths to fix them, Mr. Toyoda has already taken the first, vitally important step towards salvation.

Over the past 18 months, numerous companies that once held the coveted No. 1 slot have fallen. Consider the likes of CitiGroup, GM, Circuit City, Lehman Brothers and Washington Mutal. And of course, we can’t for forget Tiger Woods, and his fall from high. Each were at the top of the their game - then something happened. Simply, they lost their competitive edge, partly by being Number 1.

Today, Toyota is in a dangerous position. It has lost momentum. It’s reputation has been tarnished. And, many of its customers are finding attractive alternatives. Yes, Number 1 is a dangerous and lonely position from which to lead.

Be the one to see it coming!

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Without Warning - Rondey Johnson

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