Skip to content

Posts Tagged ‘Silent Problems’

Responding to a Silent Problem

Friday, August 27th, 2010

The Gulf of Mexico oil spill story has raged on for upwards of 4-months now. It’s been been a story with anger displayed, heartache captured, concerns emitted and consequences discussed. Yes, it has been a long and arduous 4-months. Yet despite the magnitude of this disaster, it can be broken into three parts, These being:

  1. Exploring the great unknown. “What will be the consequences, if any?”
  2. Shutting the beast down. “This thing is bigger than we’ve been told, can it be shut down? If yes, how soon.”
  3. Gathering information to avoid a similar catastrope in the future. “Every disaster reveals consequences from the unknown. Until its been experienced, its difficult to understand all of the unintended consequences of certain actions and procedures.”

As part of the third stage of this story, the investigation is revealing that numerous silent problems were present. For instance, recent stories reveal that a single engineer may bear a huge responsibility in the blowout.  However, this isn’t the story I’m fascinated with at the moment. I’m intrigued with how the environment is and has responded to this ecological disaster - most of it is a huge surprise - most scientists included. This story is titled, the great vanishing oil spill.

Yes, microbes may become the heroes of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill by gobbling up oil more rapidly than anyone expected.

This leads me to a parallel discovery. As I have worked with organizations and helped them work through their silent problems, I’m always surprised how organizations respond from the effects of silent problems.  And once it is solved, the results can be equally surprising and unexpected. At times, organizations remain devastated for months on end. However more often than not, once the silent problem is identified and rectified, a rejuvenation phenomenon often takes place. Unexpectant individuals step up to the plate with previously unknown skills that can be leveraged. New processes and procedures that were unwelcomed, are suddenly adopted. However most important in this equation, people learn how to speak about the unspeakable, and take action. Quite similar to the little oil eating bacteria at the sight of a natural disaster.

Exit - Stage Left

Tuesday, August 17th, 2010

Have you by chance wondered about the CEOs of the two P’s, and what really got in their way? I’m referring to Mark Hurd of HP, and Tony Hayward of BP. From what I’ve read and been able to discern, each of these had SPs (silent problems) to the max. And due to their SP affliction, HP’s and BP’s stock has suffered, and their careers derailed.

Each has exited Stage Left. Stage left for Tony Hayward means frequent trips to Siberia for the foreseeable future. The crisis in the Gulf will forever be associated with his name. For Mark Hurd, we’re unsure, although it was reported pocketed a quick $28 million, which should provide him plenty of options - including a quick retirement. However in the bigger picture, Mark Hurd symbolizes another epic chapter of HP. It’s too bad, because there’s a lot of blame to go around over at HP.

For any leader, Exit - Stage Left is rarely a pretty event. It’s filled with drama, and emotions and too much hurt. The need for true leaders is greater today than ever, unfortunately, there appears to be a shortage of them in the marketplace.

Silent Problems & Brand Valuations

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

Market valuations and silent problems - are they correlated to each other?

24/7 Wall Street recently looked at the 10 Biggest Brand Disasters of 2010. Guess what? There is a close correlation to the exposure of silent problems and the loss of brand valuations. On the list:

1. BP: Need I say more.
2. Dell: This company has exposed numerous silent problems in recent years.
4. Sony: I’ve written about Sony and its silent problems numerous times.
5. Goldman Sachs: What can I say other than they’ve created a culture where silent problems are endemic to the organization.
8. Johnson & Johnson: J&J use to be squeeky clean when it came to their brand, now silent problems are eroding it.
10. Toyota: Toyota’s culture of silencing their problems was exposed in a big way in 2010.

The other companies on the list R.I.M. (Blackberry), Adobe, Nokia and Google. Interestingly, each of these are in the fast moving technology arena where a “what’s hot” and “what’s not” mentality can reside. Yet the 6-companies on the above list have direct ties to silent problems. Makes one wonder when the marketplace will finally look at exposure to silent problems in stock valuations.

Adobe:

Silent Problems & Persistently Bad News

Monday, July 12th, 2010

One might wonder why Toyota has been consistently delivering bad news since the initial brake recall some 6-months ago? And how about the falterig economies in Europe like Greece and Spain. And what about all the stories related to the financial crisis like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Citi Group and others in recet years? Its almost as if there was pent up bad news once the initial story broke loose. Then once the floodgats opened, the torrent of bad news was overwhelming.

For instance, last week I was working with a client that had experienced a barrage of silent problems surfacing in recent months. To say the least, the many layers of bad news was taking its toll. On the surface, it felt as if the sky was falling. However in reality, there was a cleansing process underway. It was painful, yet necessary. An excellent story relating to this phenomenon is Toyota, who has experienced a multitude of quality related problems in 200. This past week they announced a 2nd recall in less than a month, this one for defective engine valve springs. A recent news story notes:

Toyota knew two years ago about the engine problem behind its latest Lexus recall, even changing the spring part to correct it, but did not think a recall was warranted until recently, a company official said Tuesday.

Toyota Motor Corp. started Monday a global recall over engine defects in its Lexus luxury models sold around the world, as well as the Crown sold in Japan, moving to repair some 270,000 vehicles to replace valve springs — crucial engine components that are flawed and could cause vehicles to stall.

In August 2008, Toyota changed that spring part, making it thicker, to prevent the problem, spokesman Hideaki Homma told The Associated Press. That is why the latest recall does not affect vehicles produced after August 2008.

What Toyota is experiencing today with the high volume of recalls is typical in many situations. What is really being exposed here is a system and culture oriented towards avoidance and neglect. And now that a new course has been set, the torrent of silent problems is being vetted all at once. However in the end, this will become positive if the problems aren’t too big to manage. Eventually this will lead to new systems, new degrees of accountability and most importantly, an integral part of their new culture.

Underestimating a Silent Problem

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Risk. Exposure. Liability. These are words that should be at the forefront of every conversation when a silent problem is identified ( a problem that has been avoided, neglected, gone unnoticed, or been intentionally silenced). The reason being, too often we underestimate the real impact a silent problem can have on an organization, and its share price. For instance, we need look no further than Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Madoff, Toyota, and now BP. In each of these and 100s of other of instances, while the crisis on the surface appeared under control, in reality things were totally out of control. Such can be the impact of a silent problem.

 In a recent Reuters article titled Wall Street Said Buy, Buy, Buy BP Stock As Gulf Crisis Unfolded illustrates how analysts often underestimate the financial impact of disasters that eminate from silent problems. The story states:

As early word of BP’s Deepwater Horizon blowout began spreading, investors panicked. After closing above $60 before the April 20 disaster, the energy giant’s shares plunged almost 20 percent in New York, to below $50, in just two weeks.

It is not hard to understand why. Even then, the out-of-control oil spill in the midst of rich fishing grounds and nearby resort beaches raised the specter of horrific damages and untold potential liabilities.

Yet, nearly to a person, the dozens of securities analysts who followed the British oil giant were unfazed. As BP (BP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares continued to drop, most were screaming the same message: buy, baby, buy.

Credit Suisse, which had a “buy” rating on the stock at the time, did not even mention the accident in an April 28 report. The firm upgraded earnings estimates after BP reported strong quarterly results the day before.

A day later, with BP’s shares then down 11 percent, Citigroup’s Mark Fletcher weighed in. He argued that the decline was “disproportionate to the likely costs to the company, even assuming damages can be claimed.” In the same report, he estimated BP’s total share of the cleanup at just $450 million — today, conservative guesses put the figure at $10 billion to $20 billion.

Around that time, Morgan Stanley was among the chorus citing the strong rebound of Exxon (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares after the 1989 Valdez tanker spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, as a reason to be bullish. “We think the sell-off presents an attractive buying opportunity for investors with medium-term investment horizons,” the firm wrote.

All told, 27 of 34 analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters rated the stock “buy” or “outperform” as recently as May 11. The other seven rated the shares “hold.” There was not a single rating of “sell” or “underperform” among those tracked.

The BP crisis is horriffic. It’s impact will be felt for years, and probably decades. And when we look at the evidence, it was a problem being intentionally silenced, and no one screamed Wolf!

BP’s Silent Problems Now Being Exposed

Monday, June 14th, 2010

Business consultant Pat Murray proclaims, “You stand for what you tolerate. Define your intolerables.” Well in a recently authored letter by two house democrats that have been leading the BP oil spill investigation, the concept of “what you tolerate” applies. According to a recent Washington Post article, it states,

– BP saved $7 million to $10 million using a more risky option for the well casing, or steel tubing. The safer option, known as the liner-tieback option, would have provided more barriers to prevent the flow of natural gas up the space between the steel tubes and the well wall.

– BP failed to install enough devices to center the pipe in the hole, which increased the danger of cracks in the cement surrounding the pipe. The American Petroleum Institute’s recommended practices warn that if the pipe, or casing, is not centered “it is difficult, if not impossible” for the cement to displace the drilling mud on the narrow side of the opening.

– BP decided against a nine- to 12-hour procedure known as a “cement bond log” that would have tested the integrity of the cement. Although BP had a team from Schlumberger, a leading oil services firm, on board the rig, BP sent the team home and told them their services were not needed.

– BP did not fully circulate drilling mud, which would have taken as long as 12 hours. That would have helped detect any pockets of gas, which later shot up the well and exploded on the deck of the drilling rig.

– BP did not secure the connections, or casing hangers, between pipes of different diameters.

The letter says that many of these decisions contradict the advice contained in other BP internal documents, which warned against the dangers of using certain types of pipe. And it reveals that even before the accident, BP engineers were struggling with unusual difficulties. On April 14, BP drilling engineer Brian Morel e-mailed a colleague, Richard Miller, saying “this has been [a] nightmare well which has everyone all over the place.”

In the book Without Warning, it states, “Silent problems absolutely define what you tolerate.” Quite simply, individuals inside BP were willing to “tolerate” actions and activities that did not pass internal standards. Instead of thoroughness, corners were cut. To achieve what? A deadline? A budget? An incentive clause? Whatever the reason, billions of dollars are now lost and thousands of lives are caught in the crosshairs. This at times is the tragic outcome associated with silent problems.

Bottomline: The BP oil spill was avoidable if they had taken the precautions necessary to ensure a safe well. Now they will pay the price for their neglect.

Everything Is Illuminated

Thursday, June 3rd, 2010

I watched a neat movie last night, “Everything is Illuminated.”  The story is about Alex, a young American jewish man that goes on a quest to find the woman who saved his grandfather during the Holocaust. If you haven’t seen it, it’s a wonderful story. The quirkiness of the characters make it come to life. It was at the very end that caught my attention though when Alex is reflecting on his journey on his return trip when he reflects,  

I have reflected many times upon our rigid search. It has shown me that everything is illuminated in the light of the past. Alex

When I look into silent problems as far ranging as Madoff, to Toyota, to the financial crisis and countless others, its amazing how everything is eventually illuminated in the light of the past. Or in plain terms - the truth is eventually exposed. And what gets exposed is the numerous warning signs along the way. There was discontent amongst employees. There was a conflict of interest present. There was a bully in the mix that did everything in their power to keep the problem silent. 

I’ve thought of and examined the context of these scenarios many times, and I realize there is a question we should be asking.

How can we illuminate problems in the present - so they can be acted upon?

This is the question we need to pursue, and one I focus on in the book Without Warning and on this blog. Because when we illuminate from the present, we can take action and hopefully avoid or at least mitigate the fallout from silent problems. And more importantly, many of the world’s problems could have been mitigated.

Your thoughts?

Silent Problems Play By Different Rules

Monday, May 17th, 2010

Have you ever noticed that problems that have been silenced tend to play by a different set of rules? When a problem that is being silenced is exposed, a strategy to keep it silent appears to be standard protocol. A case in point, I’ve discussed the silent problems over at Toyota repeatedly over that past 6-months. Quite honestly, records reveal that Toyota historically has tried to silence problems. This past week another story surfaced. This one out of the Associated Press, it states:

Toyota officials were looking to attack the credibility of witnesses who testified before Congress about sudden acceleration problems in the automaker’s vehicles, according to a report in Washington Post.

The Post says it obtained documents that show Toyota sought to create a public relations campaign based in part on polling that questioned the integrity of two witnesses. Such polls are used by businesses and politicians to test the weaknesses of their opponents.

The Post identifies the witnesses as Sean Kane, a Massachusetts safety consultant, and David Gilbert, an auto technology professor. Each criticized Toyota’s handling of the problem.

In response, Toyota told the Post it never produced advertisements based on the polling.

When I read stories related to silent problems like these, I’m not surprised by what is considered a possible defense/offense. Everything is placed on the table so to speak. Everything is calculated. Risk and opportunity measured. After all, once a problem has been silenced - a change in the game plan cannot occur midstream. Because this would be considered guilt, which carries a high degree of financial risk and exposure.

And What About Those Silent Problems in the News

Monday, April 26th, 2010

It’s been a year since my book Without Warning first came off the presses. Since then, the incidences and case study possibilities relating to what I refer to as Silent Problems (problems that are being avoided, neglected, going unnoticed or are being intentionally silenced) seems to be growing exponentially. And the stories I’m referring to are front page news. Maybe that isn’t all that surprising due to the explosive nature of silent problems when they do finally become visible - Without Warning.

Over the past couple of weeks, news items that would fall under the umbrella of being a silent problem are worth noting. Here are just a few of the high profile cases.

  1. Porn at the SEC: One would think that the Federal Governement would have an effective I.T. strategy in place to prevent the viewing of porn while at work or with government owned computer equipment. Well, the SEC proved us wrong and received another black eye for incompetence. The Washington Post states, “Dozens of Securities and Exchange Commission staff members used government computers in the past five years to access and download pornographic images, according to a summary prepared by the agency’s watchdog.”
  2. Goldman Sachs on Winning: Goldman was considered the investment banking firm you could trust. Well, all of that has changed over the past 6-months or so, and its going to get even more complicated as Goldman e-mails show how crash turned into cash.
  3. Ratings Agencies Exposed: I guess we shouldn’t be surprised that the ratings agencies also have some dirty laundry now being exposed. From the Financial Times article, Rating Agencies’ Nixon Moment, “As one Moody’s managing director wrote to his superiors in 2007, the company’s errors, made it look “either incompetent at credit analysis, or like we sold our soul to the devil for revenue, or a little bit of both…” “Jason is looking into some adjustments to his methodology that should be a benefit to your folks,” wrote a Moody’s employee to a Chase banker.The bankers seemed fully aware of the competitive pressures the rating agencies faced - and they knew how to game them.”"E-mail from Moody’s chief risk officer to Raymond McDaniel, CEO, October 2007 - ‘[N]o body gives a straight answer about anything around here . . . how about we come out with new [criteria] or a new stress and actually have clear cut parameters on what the hell we are supposed to do.”

The list could go on including stories about the Catholic Church, Toyota and others. However the storyline is the same. A problem is avoided because it is too costly, potentially too damaging or simply too time consuming to solve. Over time, the problem grosw in size and magnitude, and jumping off the treadmill is too costly. And just like a volcano, when it blows the impact is devastating, extremely disruptive and costly. Such is the case of silent problems in the real world.

Keith Wendell, the new CEO at Harley Davidson puts it in perspective when talking about the tough decisions he had to make at the firm. “There is not one of us who wakes up in the morning and says, ‘Wow, this is another opportunity to ruin someone’s life,’ ” Wandell said. “. . .  But you cannot turn your head and look the other way when there are issues that are going to ruin the company. I wish we could be totally clear about that.”

Silent Problem - Lehman Style

Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

The downfall of Lehman Brothers was the straw that broke the camel’s back. It was the trigger point that led to the most severe recession since the Great Depression. Yes, what happened at Lehman and how it happened is really important. The decision to allow Lehman Brothers to fail is a decision many wish they could do over. However, second-guessing will not change history, we can only learn from it hoping to avoid a similar downfall in the future.

As I have written about Lehman over that past year; many stories, facts and revelations have surfaced. Recently an article by Vicky Ward, author of ”The Devils Casino,” published “How Lehman’s Hidden Inner Circle Brought the Bank Down.” This article puts forth some of the underpinnings for Lehman’s demise. It states:

Sen. Chris Dodd, the Senate banking chair has asked former Lehman chief Dick Fuld to return to testify exactly how Lehman misled so many people… Perhaps some explanation may lie in an email I received today from one of Lehman’s most senior employees — someone who worked there for 17 years. He wrote to me off the record so I am not at liberty to disclose his identity, but he was very senior and widely respected.

He is not the only Lehmanite to have responded to my new book, The Devil’s Casino (Wiley). Many have thanked me for exposing a culture led (and ruined) by a tiny leadership that was egregious, isolated and mendacious.

What my e-mailer of today however points out is something that both Rep. Bacchus and Sen. Dodd may find useful as they follow up on Valukas’s report.

He wrote, “like many former colleagues, I’m astonished at how much we didn’t know about the workings of the inner circle.”

Note the last three words. “The Inner Circle.” This was not the whole Lehman’s executive committee. This was Fuld, Gregory, perhaps in reverse order, and then Gregory’s pet of the month, at one point Erin Callan, at another Mark Walsh. But it was a tiny unit, cut off from the rest of Lehman.

So, here we have Lehman:

An inner circle” at the top cut off from the rest. It fires people for telling the truth, and fails to promote the most competent executive until too late…. This culture didn’t spring up in its last few months…it festered for years. Whatever the SEC and FED missed in the bank’s final six months, the cabal at the top was already set in its ways and adept at hiding what it was really doing from not just the SEC, Fed and market — but its own senior management. That really is a horrifying culture, and one I am delighted to have exposed.

The workings of The Inner Circle was simple, they were fostering and festering a silent problem. A silent problem so great and so toxic that The Inner Circle knew they were sitting on a ticking time bomb. And the only one able to rescue them would be the Federal Government. The Inner Circle had placed their hat on the “Too Big To Fail” corner lot. In many respects, they were too big to fail, but the Fed allowed it to fail. And as is often the case, there is a lesson to be learned. That lesson is simple. Silent Problems tend to be the most challenging and disruptive problems of all. These silent problems can happen to companies big and small, sophisticated and crude, new and mature. And that is why my book Without Warning is such a important book to read, comprehend and understand. It discusses silent problems and how they take hold, morph and become so destructive. But more importantly, how to disrupt them, and solve them.

This is really important. Do it today.

Be the one to see it coming!

The first leadership book to point out the problem, then hand-deliver the solution.

Without Warning - Rondey Johnson

Learn More

Order Info