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Posts Tagged ‘Toyota’

Silent Problems & Brand Valuations

Wednesday, July 21st, 2010

Market valuations and silent problems - are they correlated to each other?

24/7 Wall Street recently looked at the 10 Biggest Brand Disasters of 2010. Guess what? There is a close correlation to the exposure of silent problems and the loss of brand valuations. On the list:

1. BP: Need I say more.
2. Dell: This company has exposed numerous silent problems in recent years.
4. Sony: I’ve written about Sony and its silent problems numerous times.
5. Goldman Sachs: What can I say other than they’ve created a culture where silent problems are endemic to the organization.
8. Johnson & Johnson: J&J use to be squeeky clean when it came to their brand, now silent problems are eroding it.
10. Toyota: Toyota’s culture of silencing their problems was exposed in a big way in 2010.

The other companies on the list R.I.M. (Blackberry), Adobe, Nokia and Google. Interestingly, each of these are in the fast moving technology arena where a “what’s hot” and “what’s not” mentality can reside. Yet the 6-companies on the above list have direct ties to silent problems. Makes one wonder when the marketplace will finally look at exposure to silent problems in stock valuations.

Adobe:

Toyota’s Ongoing Problems

Monday, June 28th, 2010

By now, most analysts thought Toyota’s problems would be behind them, and nothing but open road in front. This is not the case, as many challenges continue to face the once mighty, Toyota. As I’ve discussed in previous blogs, Toyota’s silent problems are an endemic challenge they would face and one that would not go away easily. Therefore, it’s not surprising that fresh recalls are occuring, including the recent recall of 17,000 Lexus sedans with a fuel problem. Two, Toyota’s stock price is now at its lowest level in over a year. And in recent weeks, I’ve noticed an uptick in news reports where crashes involving Toyotas’ (outside the recall spectrum)  with unintended acceleration problems occurring. Plus, none of this even begins to address the multitude of legal challenges now on their plate. To say the least, Toyota is a company with many challenges, and an unpredictable future.

What is the reason for Toyota’s ongoing problems? On March 17  I addressed this issue head-on, and is worth repeating:

Today, cost estimates for Toyota’s silent problems are ranging from $2 Billion on the low side, to $5.5 Billion on the top side. My research suggests a factor of 2X to 4X is reasonable from these numbers, because none of these estimates factor in elements such as:

  • Reduced organizational focus
  • A shift from strategic to tactical activity
  • Negative impact on team and individual performance
  • Negative impact on accountability
  • Negative impact on innovation…

These factors and others can break a high performance organization. They can increase employee turnover. They can impact financial and organizational performance for years to come. This is why betting on Toyota’s return to dominance is such a risky bet. Simply because we don’t fully understand the full impact on Toyota. However if history proves itself, this event will impact Toyota many years. Just ask GM,Ford and others…

Today, Toyota is facing increasing competition from companies like Ford & GM, Hyundai & Kia, and of course VW, Audi, BMW and others. Each of these have picked up their game in recent years and are willing to take Toyota head-on. However what is killing Toyota slowly and quietly is not competion. To the contrary, Toyota’s brand and reputation have eroded in areas where it was prviously strong like quality, engineering, dependibility, value and safety. In essence, very few proudly state, “I drive a Toyota” today. From my perspective, Toyota will continue to be a company in turmoil, with an eroding value proposition.

Underestimating a Silent Problem

Tuesday, June 22nd, 2010

Risk. Exposure. Liability. These are words that should be at the forefront of every conversation when a silent problem is identified ( a problem that has been avoided, neglected, gone unnoticed, or been intentionally silenced). The reason being, too often we underestimate the real impact a silent problem can have on an organization, and its share price. For instance, we need look no further than Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Madoff, Toyota, and now BP. In each of these and 100s of other of instances, while the crisis on the surface appeared under control, in reality things were totally out of control. Such can be the impact of a silent problem.

 In a recent Reuters article titled Wall Street Said Buy, Buy, Buy BP Stock As Gulf Crisis Unfolded illustrates how analysts often underestimate the financial impact of disasters that eminate from silent problems. The story states:

As early word of BP’s Deepwater Horizon blowout began spreading, investors panicked. After closing above $60 before the April 20 disaster, the energy giant’s shares plunged almost 20 percent in New York, to below $50, in just two weeks.

It is not hard to understand why. Even then, the out-of-control oil spill in the midst of rich fishing grounds and nearby resort beaches raised the specter of horrific damages and untold potential liabilities.

Yet, nearly to a person, the dozens of securities analysts who followed the British oil giant were unfazed. As BP (BP.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares continued to drop, most were screaming the same message: buy, baby, buy.

Credit Suisse, which had a “buy” rating on the stock at the time, did not even mention the accident in an April 28 report. The firm upgraded earnings estimates after BP reported strong quarterly results the day before.

A day later, with BP’s shares then down 11 percent, Citigroup’s Mark Fletcher weighed in. He argued that the decline was “disproportionate to the likely costs to the company, even assuming damages can be claimed.” In the same report, he estimated BP’s total share of the cleanup at just $450 million — today, conservative guesses put the figure at $10 billion to $20 billion.

Around that time, Morgan Stanley was among the chorus citing the strong rebound of Exxon (XOM.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) shares after the 1989 Valdez tanker spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, as a reason to be bullish. “We think the sell-off presents an attractive buying opportunity for investors with medium-term investment horizons,” the firm wrote.

All told, 27 of 34 analysts tracked by Thomson Reuters rated the stock “buy” or “outperform” as recently as May 11. The other seven rated the shares “hold.” There was not a single rating of “sell” or “underperform” among those tracked.

The BP crisis is horriffic. It’s impact will be felt for years, and probably decades. And when we look at the evidence, it was a problem being intentionally silenced, and no one screamed Wolf!

Silent Problems Play By Different Rules

Monday, May 17th, 2010

Have you ever noticed that problems that have been silenced tend to play by a different set of rules? When a problem that is being silenced is exposed, a strategy to keep it silent appears to be standard protocol. A case in point, I’ve discussed the silent problems over at Toyota repeatedly over that past 6-months. Quite honestly, records reveal that Toyota historically has tried to silence problems. This past week another story surfaced. This one out of the Associated Press, it states:

Toyota officials were looking to attack the credibility of witnesses who testified before Congress about sudden acceleration problems in the automaker’s vehicles, according to a report in Washington Post.

The Post says it obtained documents that show Toyota sought to create a public relations campaign based in part on polling that questioned the integrity of two witnesses. Such polls are used by businesses and politicians to test the weaknesses of their opponents.

The Post identifies the witnesses as Sean Kane, a Massachusetts safety consultant, and David Gilbert, an auto technology professor. Each criticized Toyota’s handling of the problem.

In response, Toyota told the Post it never produced advertisements based on the polling.

When I read stories related to silent problems like these, I’m not surprised by what is considered a possible defense/offense. Everything is placed on the table so to speak. Everything is calculated. Risk and opportunity measured. After all, once a problem has been silenced - a change in the game plan cannot occur midstream. Because this would be considered guilt, which carries a high degree of financial risk and exposure.

Silent Problems Being Revealed

Saturday, February 27th, 2010

 Do you wish the Toyota story would finally come to an end? Do you wish that Toyota would simply get back to the business of making great cars? Do wish that Toyota would simply come clean, take care of their problems, and move on? As much as I want to say “Yes” to each of these questions, the likelihood of it happening appears to be miniscule. The magnitude of Toyota’s problems is simply too great.

Over the past month, Toyota’s drive to fix its problems is being challenged at every intersection as new allegations, new lawsuits, and fresh dirty laundry come into the open. And from what I’ve seen, it appears that the tsunami has more destruction in its path.  Because the problems that Toyota has evidently been hiding for years are now beginning to surface, and will be fodder for front page news around the globe for the foreseeable future. And this is where Toyota’s quality and safety image is taking it on the chin.

In a Bloomberg story, Toyota Recall Crisis Said To Lie In Cost Cuts, Growth Ambitions, the authors investigate the “What went wrong” side of the story. And from the story, it’s apparent that cost cutting and corporate profits were Job 1, not quality or safety. For instance the article states, The company also had been too fixated on achieving a goal, set by Watanabe, of raising its operating margin to 10 percent to keep profit growing, the person described Toyoda as saying… At a 2006 investor conference in London Watanabe and former Executive Vice President Kazuo Okamoto discussed plans to “exceed the cost-reduction results achieved in CCC21” by eliminating vehicle parts and pushing suppliers to adopt lighter, cheaper materials. While the programs brought development advances, they may have inadvertently triggered quality glitches, said current and former company officials who asked not to be named because the information isn’t public.

Over at the Washington Post, Lawmaker accuses Toyota of withholding evidence reveals Toyota’s secretive “Book of Knowledge.”

Toyota withheld documents it was legally required to turn over in liability lawsuits the company faced and it paid higher settlements to plaintiffs to avoid revealing information contained in Toyota’s secret “Books of Knowledge,” a congressional committee chairman said Friday.

As I’ve been following and blogging about this story for over a month now, there appears to be several sides to the Toyota story now emerging.

  1. The Why Story: Why did Toyota pursue a path that was built on a deck of cards. Didn’t they realize it would eventually crumble?
  2. The How Story: How did Toyota go from being a company that was respected, to one that is being questioned and challenged? How did a company whose founding principles of quality and safety become a company of average quality and mediocre safety?
  3. The Where Story: Where were the corporate secrets held? This story is just now being told - i.e. The Book of Knowledge . Where did all of the quality and safety issues actually go  - were they simply throw into a big black hole?
  4. The What Story: What can we anticipate will surface in the future? What will Toyota attempt to do to diffuse the story and regain its fleeing customer base?
  5. The Money Story: How big will the final bill be once all of the lawsuits, recalls and reduced value of the company and future earning potential be? My guess - its much bigger than most are willing to fathom - $50 Billion?

 The cost of Toyota’s silent problems is immense. Toyota’s future is uncertain. The Toyota brand has been exposed. And unfortunately, Toyota has no one to blame but itself. They brought this on, and now owners of Toyota vehicles are suffering and Toyota’s employees exposed. I expect that next week will turn up some new information.

Probability

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Let’s assume I offered to sell you a house in an area known for its street crime. And to assure you that it was a good deal, I informed you that the probability is slim that you will have any problems. Would you buy the house? Probably not. Why? Because there are some risks you simply want to avoid.

If I was attempting to sell you a car and told you, “there is a slim probability that you might experience uncontrollable acceleration” - would you buy it? Probably not.  Because you likely enjoy life, and want to feel safe in your car. But what if you already own the car and find out that there is a slim probability that you might experience uncontrollable acceleration - does this make you feel better?

Well in the congressional panel yesterday, Jim Lentz, Toyota’s top U.S. sales executive essentially told Toyota owners to feel good about their Toyota investment because there was only a slim probability that you might experience uncontrollable acceleration. Jim Lentz, stated that Toyota plans to install an electronic program that allows the brake to override the throttle on some vehicles. And for those that don’t qualify,Lentz stated, ”the probability is slim” that they would have any problems. Furthermore, Lentz inferred that electronics could still be at the root of some unintended acceleration problems.

Toyota has a huge credibility and trust challenge going forward. Everyday, Toyota is making things worse and they can’t figure out how to overcome it. When Mr. Lentz was asked why Toyota had moved away from a business model that prized quality and openness, he offered a simple explanation: “We lost sight of our customers.”

And maybe this is the simple and heart wrenching challenge facing many companies today. “We simply lost sight of our customers.”

The answer going forward is simple Mr Lentz, isn’t it?

Safety, Quality & Transparency

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Mr. Akio Toyoda, President of the Toyota Motor Company has been embroiled in controversy and fingerpointing for several months now. Today he sits in front of a U.S. Congressional hearing to defend his company and protect its future. As a prelim to this event, Mr. Toyoda had an Op-Ed piece published in the Wall Street Journal yesterday, titled Back to Basics for Toyota - it’s worth reading. If you’ve read my blog before and its numerous articles, its worth delving into Mr. Toyota’s position.

Mr. Toyoda’s Op-Ed piece is telling, because it gives us a peek into what he is thinking, and how Toyota will attempt to reinvent itself going forward. Therefore, I went through the article and did a simple word count for the words Safety, Quality and Transparency. This is what I found.

Safety: 10 times
Quality: 6 times
Transparency: 2 times

From this, it’s apparent that Safety is what is on the mind of Toyota’s customers and repairing the safety issue is “Job 1.” And the way to solving the safety issue (rebuilding trust) is through quality, which has historically been a core strength of Toyota. However the means to addressing the safety issue is by creating a culture of transparency. This is the feedback loop that enables Toyota’s engineers to design safer systems. Yet transparency is only listed twice. They are:

1st mention - 2nd paragraph: The first step is taking care of vehicles on the road today. But it also means making even safer vehicles in the future—and being more open and transparent about any safety issues that arise.

2nd mention - next to last paragraph: In short, I pledge that Toyota will set a new standard for transparency and speed of response on safety issues. 

This Op-Ed piece focuses on safety and quality, and only touches on the issue of transparency. Yet as recent reports have implicated, its the transparency issue that is at the heart of the Toyota Safety and Quality problem. And the lack of transparency is directly tied to the Japanese culture, which it doesn’t address. How will Mr. Toyoda create a culture of transparency? What does this mean? What systems will be put in place? Without a culture of transparency, it suggests that Toyota is ripe for silent problems (problems that are being avoided, neglected, go about unnoticed or are being intentionally silenced) into the future.

Bottom Line: Toyota needs to implement processes and procedures to deal with the silent problems inside the Toyota organization. It’s interesting, they have the system in place in their manufacturing plants today, and is core to their historical strength in quality and safety. Now they need to implement a similar process inside the management and leadership ranks at Toyota. And as I noted in my book, silent problems can be the most destructive problems of all. 

What do you think? Can Akio Toyoda do better?

 

Toyota Intentionally Silenced Problems

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

The news is out. Not necessarily a surprise though. Yes, Toyota has been caught intentionally silencing problems. In my book, I refer to the avenue Toyota pursued as the Icebox Silent Problem approach. The book states, “These problems aren’t being resolved. They’re simply being micromanaged inside an icebox where anyone threatening to leak them are frozen out.” Well yesterday, it was confirmed that Toyota had intentionally silenced problems - i.e. an Icebox Silent Problem.

TOKYO (MarketWatch) — A U.S. congressional investigation into Toyota Motor Corp. has turned up documents revealing that the auto maker saved more than $100 million through negotiations with U.S. safety regulators that helped limit an equipment recall in 2007, according to news reports Monday.

The more than $100 million in savings touted by Toyota officials were listed under the title of “Wins for Toyota-Safety Group,” and Toyota officials highlighted them as a key company achievement in 2009, the reports said, citing documents obtained by U.S. congressional investigators.

To Toyota’s dismay, they find themselves with some nefarious company in the icebox. For instance, Peanut Corporation of America, Enron, Worldcom, and Bernie Madoff being just a few.

Toyota is losing ground in their ability to regain their credibility and sales momentum. Almost everyday a new, more damaging revelation is hitting the front page of the news. And my best guess is, Toyota is not going to recover from this anytime soon - if ever. Inside Toyota,  fingerpointing, blame and accusations are likely an everyday occurrence. They’re imploding from the outside - in. Moral and productivity is likely dismal. The true cost of Toyota’s silent problem debacle will likely exceed $50 Billion before its over (cost of recalls, lost sales, stock price erosion, lawsuit liability…).

Bottom Line: Don’t be surprised if Toyota is forced to file for bankruptcy before its all said and done. This story is likely to get worse from here.

Toyota and the Fish

Tuesday, February 16th, 2010

There is an old saying that ”A fish rots from the head down.” This saying gets to the heart of why and where many organizations fail. This of course being leadership. As the Toyota story continues to unfold, I’ve been pondering from where is the Toyota fish rotting? From the head (corporate & leadership), from the tail (dealers), or from the midsection (manufacturing & engineering)? Let’s take a brief look at some of these areas.

  • Without a doubt, Toyota’s manufacturing system has been untouched. It continues to be the crown jewel.
  • In most respects, even engineering hasn’t been implicated. Granted, Toyota’s problems have ties to engineering, but engineering doesn’t appear to be at fault. The reason being, engineering is dependent on continuous and timely feedback so it can adjust, refine and improve the system. It’s apparent that engineering has been every bit as much in the dark about Toyota’s problems as is the customer.
  • And what about Toyota’s dealers? Although there have been stories of arrogance (Toyota is the best…), it doesn’t appear that dealers have been at the source of the problem. Maybe somewhat complacent, but not the source.

So where does the root of Toyota’s problems lie? Here I started to compress every news article I’ve read over the past couple of months (and believe me, it is a long list). After a few days of pondering the answer, problem identification is becoming clear, it’s the corporate mothership and its leadership. Yes, a fish rots from the head down seems to apply. Let me present a few of the scenarios at play here.

  1.  In today’s Wall Street Journal, they have a story titled “Toyota Woes Put Focus On Black Box.” The story delves into the black box (similar to the black box of an airplane) that sits inside every car and how Toyota defies releasing the information that lies within. The WSJ goes on to state, “U.S. auto makers General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler Group LLC have provided their black-box data formats to Bosch Diagnostics, a unit of German auto supplier Robert Bosch GmbH that makes tools that download crash logs from vehicles made by those auto makers. Those tools are widely used by police, crash investigators and attorneys, and the auto makers don’t question the accuracy of the data retrieved with them.”
  2. Toyota has been dragging their feet. “Toyota’s relationship with industry regulators, as The New York Times, was a “kabuki dance” that even involved an unprecedented trip to Japan by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Secretary Ray LaHood. Toyota execs were reportedly “dragging things out” and “offering excuses that didn’t make any sense.”
  3. Another WSJ article discusses the Japanese culture and its relation to the problem. “In Japan there is a proverb, “If it stinks, put a lid on it.” Alas, this seems to have been Toyota’s approach to its burgeoning safety crisis, initially denying, minimizing and mitigating the problems involving brakes that don’t brake and accelerators that have a mind of their own. President Akio Toyoda, grandson of the founder, was MIA for two weeks and the company has appeared less than forthcoming about critical safety issues, risking the trust of its customers world-wide.”

As stated earlier, the where does the fish rot scenario is an important question to answer, because it is the starting point from which change must occur. My analysis points to Toyota corporate and its leadership team as the problem, since they’ve been the willing agents that have embraced silent problems along the way. And this creates a significant challenge to Toyota, and their recovery. How can an organization change, now that the rules of the game are quickly changing. How can a culture or secrecy be transformed to one of transparency overnight? How can an organization of complexity be transformed into one of simplicity? How can an organization that conforms evolve into an organization that is agile and willing to speak up?

These are the issues facing Toyota and is why Toyota’s future is so uncertain.

Toyota’s Prime Time Movie Script

Wednesday, February 10th, 2010

As the Toyota Story unfolds, and new chapters are added on a daily basis, a central plot to the story continues to emerge. The plot includes elements of cover-up, deceipt and lack good judgement. Okay, really bad judgement. When one thinks about it, this story is filled with intrigue, surprises, money and of course, a world-class cast. And most importantly, the story has gone viral, and is spreading like wildfire. The publicity at times has overshadowed the Superbowl, and the upcoming Winter Olympics. It is a story with staying power!!!

It’s a story where the main character, Toyota Motor Company no longer lived its values, which made it strong in the beginning. It’s a story where silent problems (problems that are being avoided, neglected or going unnoticed) became embedded in the organization, and it became a slippery slope to disaster. It’s a story that will teach others many important lessons, at least to those that are watching.

Although the Toyota story isn’t a movie script, it could be. For instance today, an article over at the Huffington Post writes about Toyota’s Silent Problems, and how they kept them from being exposed. Here is an excerpt.

The recall of nearly 8 million Toyota vehicles was years in the making and was complicated by excuses offered to regulators and by delay tactics employed by Toyota, according to several news reports this morning.

Toyota’s relationship with industry regulators, as The New York Times, was a “kabuki dance” that even involved an unprecedented trip to Japan by National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Secretary Ray LaHood. Toyota execs were reportedly “dragging things out” and “offering excuses that didn’t make any sense.” puts it

Worse, the problems with the accelerators in Toyota vehicles were first spotted in 2003

As we look back at the Toyota story, one has to wonder why, which leads me to a favorite.

There’s a difference between truth and fiction. Fiction has to make sense.

And somehow, I think this states it all. Toyota has experienced a Humpty-Dumpty moment and only time will tell whether all of the pieces can be put back together.

Be the one to see it coming!

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