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Posts Tagged ‘Uncategorized’

Supply Chains Exposed

Wednesday, March 11th, 2009

Recently I wrote about how supply chains were potentially a Silent Problem on the horizon for more and more businesses (Supply Chain Unrest).  Today, I read with interest a story from Bloomberg titled China’s Investment Surges 26.5% as Exports Plunge.  Near the end of the article it states, “Plunging exports and imports forced 20,000 small- and medium- sized companies in China’s Guangdong province to close since October, shedding 2 million jobs, the Nanfang Daily newspaper reported last month. Those feeling the squeeze include suppliers to companies such as Mattel Inc., the world’s biggest toymaker, and U.S. department- store chain J.C. Penney Co. U.S. consumer confidence has tumbled as a recession deepens in the world’s biggest economy.”

Supply chains can be robust and fragile at the same time.  In a growing worldwide economy, new factories are built, jobs are created and infrastructure to sustain it is built.  In a declining economy, factories are shuttered, employees are eliminated and infrastructure becomes hobbled. 

Creating a world-class supply chain can be challenging to build and costly to maintain.  The more complicated the end product, the difficulty to maintain it grows exponentially.  And visibility into the supply chain becomes inherently more difficult.  Today many supply chains are a Without Warning Event ready to happen.  Unfortunately, this may the next component that could push many businesses out of business.

On a positive note, every challenge can be another person’s opportunity.  Here I expect companies will be forced to reevaluate their supply chain risks.  And in the end, some will decide to move production back to their home base.  It may not be the lowest cost solution, however, increased costs will be overshadowed by reduced risk.  Welcome to the World of Business.

The GE Leadership Source

Tuesday, March 10th, 2009

Over the past decade, GE has been a source of World Class leaders for numerous companies.  For instance, Jeff Immelt, James McNerney and Robert Nardelli were each hoping to receive the nod from Jack Welch upon his retirement.  Jeff Immelt was selected.  Although in the past year, GE’s stock price has experienced a 75+% decline. James McNerny became the CEO of 3M and now heads up Boeing.  Boeing’s stock price has declined upwards of 65% in the past 12 months.  And Robert Nardelli moved over to Home Depot where his tenure was suspect and now heads up Chrysler, which is flirting with bankruptcy.

Here is the question.  In the future, will the perceived value of leaders emerging out of GE be tarnished?

From my perspective, most emerging leaders have cut their teeth in three arenas in recent years. International trade, aka the World is Flat model.  Secondly, high finance.  And third, growth through Merger and Acquisitions.  Suddenly, the World looks significantly different than it did a year ago.  What was in vogue, is quickly going out of favor.  For many companies, it will be getting back to basics.

Is the GE leadership model out of vogue?  If yes, what type of leader will be in demand over the next 3-5 years?

This is a fine mess…

Sunday, March 8th, 2009

The comedic duo of Stan Laurel (the skinny one) and Oliver Hardy were a popular comedy team back in the days when Black and White was still popular.  And one of their most memorable lines was, “This is a fine mess you got us into.”   Well I was thinking about this line and the similar statures between that of Rush Limbaugh (Oliver Hardy), the overly pompous Republican soothsayer and that of President Barack Obama (Stan Laurel), the straight guy.   

Well, in recent weeks, Limbaugh has challenged the President to a debate on his talk show.  And the only conclusion I see coming out of this would be these final words from Limbaugh, “Well, Mr. President, this is a fine mess you got us into.”  Unfortunately, President Obama is giving Limbaugh more than enough material to make this phrase apply, at least at the moment.  And unless something reverses course, “a fine mess” could denote the first year of his presidency.  So far, the stimulus isn’t stimulating.  And his economic plan isn’t being very economic. 

Well, in Without Warning fashion, I expect Saturday Night Live to quickly create an ongoing skit with Limbaugh and Obama in the oval office.  And the designation, “Well Mr. President, this is a fine mess you’ve gotten us into” will come to life.

A Leadership Challenge

Saturday, March 7th, 2009

As the economy slows, how do you know you’re making the right decisions?  What are the right actions?  Where do you cut?  What and whom is expendable?  Truth is, leading in a down economy is difficult, with more traps and distractions that could put any seasoned veteran leader down for the count. 

Why is this?

Truth is, we’re programmed and educated in the processes of “how to grow” a business.  Incentive plans, strategic plans, product development are all generally based on growth.  Not contraction. Which leads us to my first point.  Leading in a downturn is psychologically challenging, and you must accept the challenge with open arms.  Most leaders simply will be unable to say, “I’m not participating in this recession.”  The depth of the recession is simply to broad and too deep to avoid.  The second challenge should be taken for granted.  You will need to make numerous unpopular decisions.  Accept the fact you will not be Mr. Popularity for some time to come.  Third, don’t forget to do the things that made your business successful in the first place.  Actions related to customer service, quality, a pleasant work environment and keeping the remaining workforce motivated and appreciated is paramount to your success. 

The natural inclination for business leaders to pursue at this juncture is to make something BIG happen.  However, Without Warning events tend to emerge from messing up on the little things.  At this point, taking care of the little things is more important than ever.  Now go do it.

If Cheap Becomes Chic

Thursday, March 5th, 2009

This recession is different.  In recessions past, products and services positioned for the weathly were generally considered “recession proof”.  However this time around, the wealthy are also suffering.  Today, such industry stalwarts from Rolls Royce to Tiffany are experiencing a significant downtick in demand.   Yes, this is a Without Warning Event of significant magnitude.

What’s underway?

Obviously, significant quantities of wealth were wiped out by schemes like Madoff and Stanford.  Next, the financial sector, home to some of the best paid jobs in the world, has been hit hard, with well over 200,000 jobs lost.  Third and maybe most important, stocks have lost over 50% of their value, most of that within the last 6-months.  When you add these with other factors like housing into the equation,  it’s not surprising that the wealthy are also feeling the pain.

What does this mean in the bigger picture?

The question I’m asking today is whether this is a short term event, or a long term trend.  Is this a crucible moment, similar to the Great Depression, where consumers lose their appetite for the luxurious and retain their newfound mantra for the frugal?  Or is this a brief downtrend, a place where individuals will simply resume where the left off once the financial crisis subsides and economies regain their footing. 

Your thoughts…

A Looming Biofuels Bust

Wednesday, March 4th, 2009

On February 23rd, I wrote in this column, titled A Few Good Men, about former military general Wesley Clark and how he was named co-chairman of Growth Energy, a new biofuels group/association.  I stated they have four  primary objectives, which Clark would be directly focused on delivering against.  They were:

  1. Help move the blending cap from the current 10%, to 15-20%
  2. Increase the perceived importance of ethanol as a part of national and energy security
  3. Maintain the current subsidy program in place, which is due for renewal
  4. Position the industry as one that should not be allowed to fail

Today, I believe the importance of delivering on point #1 is quickly diminishing and the importance of numbers 2,3 and 4 are increasing.  If you were to follow the biofuels marketplace, you’d realize that biofuel plants are shutting down at an alarming rate.  The reason being, they simply aren’t profitable in today’s marketplace.  Crude oil is too low and their feedstock (mostly corn or soybeans) too high.  With many of these facilities either shutting their doors or considering this alternative, a shortage of ethanol could quickly emerge.  In turn, remaining production sites would be unable to meet the ethanol inclusion mandates in place.  The shortfall would be met by lowering the standard (by offering exceptions) or start importing ethanol (most likely source, Brazil). 

So as I iterated in my initial post, Growth Energy will be marching up to Capitol Hill, demanding their fair share of stimulus dollars. This industry is no longer focused on growth, but rather survival. At least that’s the way I see it.

How BIG is a Trillion

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009

Millions, Billions & Trillions.  How BIG are they.  I had the good fortune of listening to Alan Beaulieu of Trend Research today.  It  was a presentation about the state of the economy.  Pretty scary stuff.  Maybe more on thiatlater.  But here is an interesting piece of trivia that everyone should be able to answer.

How BIG is a Trillion?

Well, if you were to do the math, it’s mind-numbing.  If I were to give you a $1 Million every day, it would take 2,809 years for you to collect your trillion dollars.  So when you hear about the stimulus plan that is possibly $1 trillion on the low side and maybe as high as $2 trillion on the top side, you can begin to fathom what a big number that is.  And more importantly, “Is spending a trillion dollars on stimulus efforts wise?”

Unfortunately, our leaders in Washington are tossing around a trillion dollar economic stimulus as if its no big deal - when in reality it is a really BIG DEAL.

Inspiration

Monday, March 2nd, 2009

With my book Without Warning soon to be released, many ask, “Where did you come up with the idea?”  I liken it to a song that you can’t get out of your head.  One day I was meeting with a client when she told me an amazing story about how she got her team to work together.  In the book, the chapter is titled, “The Head Fake.”  This was my inspirational moment, the point where I realized at times, the best means to solving a problem is to Create a Problem, which I refer to as a CAP Initiative.  From that moment forward, I don’t know why I wrote the book, because I don’t consider myself a writer.  I’m unsure where the wisdom came from, other than it happened in profound ways.  I didn’t understand why, other than intuitively I realized it was important.

And this morning some of the stars came into alignment.  I was over at Bob Sutton’s blog and he had an entry titled, The Best Talk on Creativity I ever Saw.  It’s a 20 minute clip from TED with Elizabeth Gilbert, the author of Eat, Pray, Love presenting.  It’s brilliant and counterintuitive.  At least from where I’ve been educated.  Here it is Elizabeth Gilbert on the Creative Process.  It is well worth the investment.

Business as Improv

Sunday, March 1st, 2009

Welcome to a whole new world.  A place where constant turmoil is making business plans irrelavant, leaders challenged and sound decision making paramount to survival.

How can you lead and win in this environment?

Over the past 6-months, most business leaders have come to realize they must lead differently.  They understand that business as normal doesn’t exist.  They comprehend that long term plans are on hold, and short term decisions are key to survival.  They know the rules to the game have changed.  And its this last point that is relevant and important, which is why I like numerous aspects of this manifesto over at ChangeThis  It looks back at the origins of improv on the Southside of Chicago during the depths of the great Depresssion.  It states, In the periods of upheaval, imagination triumphs over status quo, and innovators and visionaries find opportunities that do not exist in balmier times.  Viola Spolin, the mother of improv in her 1963 book  “Improvisation for Theater” writes, “In its simplest terms, it is giving problems to solve problems.”

In today’s environtment, every leader is given problems from the environment in which they reside.  In turn, leaders are expected to solve these problems as they surface, which at times might resemble ”Improv.”  It’s thinking, acting and deciding as you go.  At times, this will be awkward and troublesome.  At other times, it might present opportunities to pursue and potentially, exploit.

Yes, at times, “Business is Improv.”

Food Safety at a Crossroads

Friday, February 27th, 2009

Human nature would like us to believe the incident involving Peanut Corporation of America (PCA) was an honest mistake.  It wasn’t.  The salmonella outbreak involved deception, cover-ups, and lies, where numerous warning signs that something wrong existed.  In the book, Without Warning, author Rodney Johnson describes such an event as a silent problem, a problem that is being avoided, neglected, and in this case, intentionally silenced.

 As is common, when a silent problem is present, individuals closest to the problem know a problem exists.  For example, leaky roofs and a multitude of unsanitary conditions were present at PCA.  And several inside the company knew it had shipped product that initially tested positive for salmonella. 

 What’s the solution? 

 This might seem obvious, but we must realize government oversight will never be the only solution.  The first line of defense must lie in creating programs that empower employees to do what’s right.  This is detailed in the book Without Warning where it states that the first tactic must be to make the problem visible.  This could be achieved by creating a 1-800 whistleblower hotline for employees at any FDA regulated food facility to contact.  The second tactic would make the problem memorable.  I’d recommend the FDA create a series of films, posters and a website informing employees what would be considered an unsafe food environment.  The third tactic would provide the FDA direct access to all testing results from approved laboratories, which they do not have today.

 Only when the government empowers its citizens to do what’s right, will stories similar to PCA be avoided.

Be the one to see it coming!

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Without Warning - Rondey Johnson

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