Recently I wrote about how supply chains were potentially a Silent Problem on the horizon for more and more businesses (Supply Chain Unrest). Today, I read with interest a story from Bloomberg titled China’s Investment Surges 26.5% as Exports Plunge. Near the end of the article it states, “Plunging exports and imports forced 20,000 small- and medium- sized companies in China’s Guangdong province to close since October, shedding 2 million jobs, the Nanfang Daily newspaper reported last month. Those feeling the squeeze include suppliers to companies such as Mattel Inc., the world’s biggest toymaker, and U.S. department- store chain J.C. Penney Co. U.S. consumer confidence has tumbled as a recession deepens in the world’s biggest economy.”
Supply chains can be robust and fragile at the same time. In a growing worldwide economy, new factories are built, jobs are created and infrastructure to sustain it is built. In a declining economy, factories are shuttered, employees are eliminated and infrastructure becomes hobbled.
Creating a world-class supply chain can be challenging to build and costly to maintain. The more complicated the end product, the difficulty to maintain it grows exponentially. And visibility into the supply chain becomes inherently more difficult. Today many supply chains are a Without Warning Event ready to happen. Unfortunately, this may the next component that could push many businesses out of business.
On a positive note, every challenge can be another person’s opportunity. Here I expect companies will be forced to reevaluate their supply chain risks. And in the end, some will decide to move production back to their home base. It may not be the lowest cost solution, however, increased costs will be overshadowed by reduced risk. Welcome to the World of Business.